Updated |
What Went Down On Health Care This Week
Paul Is For Skinny Repeal Now And Isn’t Excited About Compromise Later
According to Vox’s Dylan Scott, Rand Paul plans to vote for “skinny repeal” but also says he doesn’t think an American Health Care Act– or Better Care Reconciliation Act-type bill would pass the Senate if it emerges out of a House-Senate conference. Paul himself could have a lot to say about that, given that he, Murkowski and Collins would be enough to sink a conference bill. Paul was one of nine Republican senators to vote against the BCRA last night.
All of this is pretty screwy. Senate leadership is selling Republicans on “skinny repeal” not so much on its own terms, but as the only way to keep hope alive for another shot at an AHCA-type bill after the conference. But some members, like Paul, will vote for skinny repeal because they like it on the merits, seemingly hoping the conference will *not* yield an AHCA-type bill.
Some Of These ’No’ Votes Come As A Surprise
Based only on Trump’s election margin in each state — the metric we use for calculating our Trump Score — several Republican “no” votes on today’s repeal-and-delay measure were surprising. Based on Trump’s margin and how other senators voted, we would have given Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia a 96 percent chance of voting for the measure. And Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander would have had an 81 percent chance of voting “yes.” Both of them, along with five other Republicans, voted “no.”
| SENATOR | STATE | VOTE | PREDICTED PROBABILITY | TRUMP PLUS-MINUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capito | WV | No | 95.98% | -95.98 |
| Alexander | TN | No | 80.80% | -80.80 |
| Murkowski | AK | No | 60.18% | -60.18 |
| Portman | OH | No | 45.99% | -45.99 |
| McCain | AZ | No | 36.32% | -36.32 |
| Heller | NV | No | 25.02% | -25.02 |
| Collins | ME | No | 24.09% | -24.09 |
| Enzi | WY | Yes | 97.58% | +2.42 |
| Barrasso | WY | Yes | 97.58% | +2.42 |
| Lankford | OK | Yes | 92.44% | +7.56 |
| Inhofe | OK | Yes | 92.44% | +7.56 |
| Hoeven | ND | Yes | 91.91% | +8.09 |
| Risch | ID | Yes | 88.18% | +11.82 |
| Crapo | ID | Yes | 88.18% | +11.82 |
| Paul | KY | Yes | 85.97% | +14.03 |
| McConnell | KY | Yes | 85.97% | +14.03 |
| Rounds | SD | Yes | 85.91% | +14.09 |
| Thune | SD | Yes | 85.91% | +14.09 |
| Shelby | AL | Yes | 83.25% | +16.75 |
| Strange | AL | Yes | 83.25% | +16.75 |
| Cotton | AR | Yes | 82.13% | +17.87 |
| Boozman | AR | Yes | 82.13% | +17.87 |
| Corker | TN | Yes | 80.80% | +19.2 |
| Fischer | NE | Yes | 79.35% | +20.65 |
| Sasse | NE | Yes | 79.35% | +20.65 |
| Roberts | KS | Yes | 71.80% | +28.2 |
| Moran | KS | Yes | 71.80% | +28.2 |
| Daines | MT | Yes | 71.47% | +28.53 |
| Kennedy | LA | Yes | 70.01% | +29.99 |
| Cassidy | LA | Yes | 70.01% | +29.99 |
| Young | IN | Yes | 69.11% | +30.89 |
| Blunt | MO | Yes | 68.09% | +31.91 |
| Lee | UT | Yes | 67.00% | +33 |
| Hatch | UT | Yes | 67.00% | +33 |
| Cochran | MS | Yes | 66.50% | +33.5 |
| Wicker | MS | Yes | 66.50% | +33.5 |
| Sullivan | AK | Yes | 60.18% | +39.82 |
| Scott | SC | Yes | 59.20% | +40.8 |
| Graham | SC | Yes | 59.20% | +40.8 |
| Grassley | IA | Yes | 48.75% | +51.25 |
| Ernst | IA | Yes | 48.75% | +51.25 |
| Cruz | TX | Yes | 47.87% | +52.13 |
| Cornyn | TX | Yes | 47.87% | +52.13 |
| Isakson | GA | Yes | 39.66% | +60.34 |
| Perdue | GA | Yes | 39.66% | +60.34 |
| Tillis | NC | Yes | 36.55% | +63.45 |
| Burr | NC | Yes | 36.55% | +63.45 |
| Flake | AZ | Yes | 36.32% | +63.68 |
| Rubio | FL | Yes | 31.65% | +68.35 |
| Johnson | WI | Yes | 30.82% | +69.18 |
| Toomey | PA | Yes | 30.74% | +69.26 |
| Gardner | CO | Yes | 20.92% | +79.08 |
I think my takeaway has been that many of these senators have not meant anything they said. Remember when Bill Cassidy was going on Jimmy Kimmel’s show criticizing these bills? He voted for both. If you are a liberal, Capito and Cassidy are backing bills they were saying that they would not. If you are a conservative, Capito, Portman and McCain voted for this repeal-only bill when Obama was president but against it just now.