Updated |
What Went Down On Health Care This Week
Some Of These ’No’ Votes Come As A Surprise
Based only on Trump’s election margin in each state — the metric we use for calculating our Trump Score — several Republican “no” votes on today’s repeal-and-delay measure were surprising. Based on Trump’s margin and how other senators voted, we would have given Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia a 96 percent chance of voting for the measure. And Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander would have had an 81 percent chance of voting “yes.” Both of them, along with five other Republicans, voted “no.”
| SENATOR | STATE | VOTE | PREDICTED PROBABILITY | TRUMP PLUS-MINUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capito | WV | No | 95.98% | -95.98 |
| Alexander | TN | No | 80.80% | -80.80 |
| Murkowski | AK | No | 60.18% | -60.18 |
| Portman | OH | No | 45.99% | -45.99 |
| McCain | AZ | No | 36.32% | -36.32 |
| Heller | NV | No | 25.02% | -25.02 |
| Collins | ME | No | 24.09% | -24.09 |
| Enzi | WY | Yes | 97.58% | +2.42 |
| Barrasso | WY | Yes | 97.58% | +2.42 |
| Lankford | OK | Yes | 92.44% | +7.56 |
| Inhofe | OK | Yes | 92.44% | +7.56 |
| Hoeven | ND | Yes | 91.91% | +8.09 |
| Risch | ID | Yes | 88.18% | +11.82 |
| Crapo | ID | Yes | 88.18% | +11.82 |
| Paul | KY | Yes | 85.97% | +14.03 |
| McConnell | KY | Yes | 85.97% | +14.03 |
| Rounds | SD | Yes | 85.91% | +14.09 |
| Thune | SD | Yes | 85.91% | +14.09 |
| Shelby | AL | Yes | 83.25% | +16.75 |
| Strange | AL | Yes | 83.25% | +16.75 |
| Cotton | AR | Yes | 82.13% | +17.87 |
| Boozman | AR | Yes | 82.13% | +17.87 |
| Corker | TN | Yes | 80.80% | +19.2 |
| Fischer | NE | Yes | 79.35% | +20.65 |
| Sasse | NE | Yes | 79.35% | +20.65 |
| Roberts | KS | Yes | 71.80% | +28.2 |
| Moran | KS | Yes | 71.80% | +28.2 |
| Daines | MT | Yes | 71.47% | +28.53 |
| Kennedy | LA | Yes | 70.01% | +29.99 |
| Cassidy | LA | Yes | 70.01% | +29.99 |
| Young | IN | Yes | 69.11% | +30.89 |
| Blunt | MO | Yes | 68.09% | +31.91 |
| Lee | UT | Yes | 67.00% | +33 |
| Hatch | UT | Yes | 67.00% | +33 |
| Cochran | MS | Yes | 66.50% | +33.5 |
| Wicker | MS | Yes | 66.50% | +33.5 |
| Sullivan | AK | Yes | 60.18% | +39.82 |
| Scott | SC | Yes | 59.20% | +40.8 |
| Graham | SC | Yes | 59.20% | +40.8 |
| Grassley | IA | Yes | 48.75% | +51.25 |
| Ernst | IA | Yes | 48.75% | +51.25 |
| Cruz | TX | Yes | 47.87% | +52.13 |
| Cornyn | TX | Yes | 47.87% | +52.13 |
| Isakson | GA | Yes | 39.66% | +60.34 |
| Perdue | GA | Yes | 39.66% | +60.34 |
| Tillis | NC | Yes | 36.55% | +63.45 |
| Burr | NC | Yes | 36.55% | +63.45 |
| Flake | AZ | Yes | 36.32% | +63.68 |
| Rubio | FL | Yes | 31.65% | +68.35 |
| Johnson | WI | Yes | 30.82% | +69.18 |
| Toomey | PA | Yes | 30.74% | +69.26 |
| Gardner | CO | Yes | 20.92% | +79.08 |
I think my takeaway has been that many of these senators have not meant anything they said. Remember when Bill Cassidy was going on Jimmy Kimmel’s show criticizing these bills? He voted for both. If you are a liberal, Capito and Cassidy are backing bills they were saying that they would not. If you are a conservative, Capito, Portman and McCain voted for this repeal-only bill when Obama was president but against it just now.
Related to what I just wrote, I always thought that the most important part of this debate was not the policy details or Trump, but the driving opposition among conservative activists to “Obamacare” — even if parts of the law are popular. No Republican wants to be the person who stopped Obamacare repeal. That is playing out here. Some of these policies are quite ill-conceived. The idea that Congress should repeal Obamacare but have a two-year delay seems nuts. What gives you any confidence that Congress can work out a deal on Obamacare in two years? Forty-five senators voted for that, including some of the most serious, policy-minded members, like Bob Corker.