FiveThirtyEight
Annette Choi Erin Doherty

Every candidate except Castro has mentioned Trump at least one time tonight.

Who talked about Trump?

How often Trump has been mentioned by candidates participating in night two of the second Democratic debate, as of 9:19 p.m. Wednesday

Candidate Trump Mentions
Cory Booker 6
Michael Bennet 5
Joe Biden 5
Kirsten Gillibrand 4
Bill de Blasio 2
Andrew Yang 2
Tulsi Gabbard 1
Kamala Harris 1
Jay Inslee 1
Julián Castro 0

Source: Debate Transcript via ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

Inslee talks up how he pardoned many people in Washington for drug crimes. I think he’s probably had the best night of “the field” so far (Bennet, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and de Blasio the others).

Nate Silver

I think Booker got more effective over the course of that long exchange. At first, he was having a little bit of trouble connecting Biden’s past record to his current stance on criminal justice. He probably needed to imply more strongly that, basically, Biden can’t be trusted. But at least he did get back to hammering home how many consequences Biden’s past, more conservative approach had caused.

Perry Bacon Jr.

This exchange has went on a while and I think Biden has done much better than the last debate. I happen to think this is a hard idea for Booker or Harris or anyone to convince voters of–that Barack Obama’s vp is bad on racial issues. Whatever happened in 1994, I think voters view Biden’s racial record in the lens of 2009-2016.

Laura Bronner

That exchange between Booker and Biden was testy, but it was also based in critiquing each other’s records in a fairly informed way.

Nathaniel Rakich

Galen, I think you’re forgetting about “folks…”

Galen Druke

Which reminds me, by the way, that they fixed the microphones.

Nathaniel Rakich

Biden’s opposition to marijuana legalization isn’t just the conservative position in the Democratic primary — it would be the conservative position among the Republican electorate, 53 percent of whom support legalization.

Galen Druke

As someone who edits audio for a living, verbal crutches stick out to me quite a bit. Biden’s crutch is: “The fact of the matter is…”

Sarah Frostenson

“There’s a saying in my community that you’re dipping into the kool-aid and you don’t even know the flavor.” — Booker to Biden just now, on criminal justice.

Dan Hopkins

Almost everything we’ve talked about tonight has required Congressional action. Given the very real chance of a divided government, I’d be curious to hear how these candidates plan to use executive authority — and to oversee the federal government.

Clare Malone

Yeah, Perry, it’s been interesting to watch the Biden team over the last week soften the ground for this exchange — talking up the idea that Newark’s police department was corrupt.

Perry Bacon Jr.

Wow. Biden had a whole lot of attacks ready for Booker’s mayorship in Newark. Wow. Didn’t expect that.

Clare Malone

I think you’re seeing Biden’s decades long playbook as a politician on display. He’s trying to defuse a tense exchange with Booker by calling him a futures president, giving him a arm squeeze. Booker is having none of it.

Poll Bot

Geoffrey Skelley

Booker said he wants, “true marijuana justice,” meaning he wants to legalize it at the federal level. Two-thirds of Americans support legalization, per Gallup in 2018.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Booker says that marijuana should be legalized. This is a popular position overall but Biden, so far, has only come out in support of decriminalization.

Perry Bacon Jr.

Biden is right: he and Booker have similar stands on criminal justice now. Booker is right that Biden used to be much more conservative on criminal justice policy.

Julia Azari

Back to back on my Twitter feed from two political scientists I respect:

Perry Bacon Jr.

I’m not sure, in a Democratic primary, that you can ever invoke Obama enough. I think Biden was smart to duck the attempt to get him to attack Obama on immigration. I’m guessing most Democratic voters aren’t that upset with how Obama handled immigration — and those who are favor Sanders and Warren.

Geoffrey Skelley

Criminalization is now the topic, which didn’t come up last night — an opportunity for CNN to stir up conflict between Biden and Booker.

Geoffrey Skelley

Biden has definitely been stronger tonight. He’s stumbling less and has been more assertive in defending his positions and more willing to attack others.

Micah Cohen

Perry, I wonder if Biden is going too heavy on the Obama-linking. You’re starting to see to fray tonight — how will it fare in February?

Nate Silver

I don’t know if we’re having *that* much trouble. The narrative is probably going to be that Biden recovered to have a pretty good debate after having a pretty bad debate last time around. I actually don’t think Biden’s been great! But he’s been decent-to-good and he’s benefiting a lot from the media’s low expectations and tendency to underestimate him. Of the non-Biden candidates, I guess I think Booker and Yang and de Blasio have been pretty good.

Perry Bacon Jr.

I think Biden has been attacked by a lot of people tonight and very much held his ground. I didn’t think he had this kind of performance in him. I’m impressed. He has not been perfect, but he has attacked Trump, linked himself to Obama, and continued to emphasize positions that are left but not that left.

Dan Hopkins

If we’re having trouble identifying a stand-out so far, that’s a win for front-runners like Biden.

Julia Azari

I think that’s hard to say also. Booker seems to be perhaps holding his own alongside Biden and Harris, and Gillibrand has had a few good lines. But it feels very different from last night.

Sarah Frostenson

We’ve now hit the half-way mark. Who do you think has had a standout debate performance so far? To be honest, I’m finding it harder to tell tonight than last night. Thoughts?

Chris Herring

Micah, Biden is the Warriors. Once sat on the throne, so to speak, and now finds himself under attack, in a way. (Although he’s still the favorite, I guess.)

Micah Cohen

Chris, seeing as how you’re here, can you give us some 2020-to-NBA analogies? Biden is the [insert NBA player] of the 2020 Democratic primary? Harris?

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Biden is saying essentially, “Obama tried to change the immigration system and he got a lot of pushback.” That’s true – but he also doubled down on immigration enforcement in an attempt to get the GOP to work with him. Is this a good path for Biden to go down?

Geoffrey Skelley

Gillibrand lost focus there for a second, but then moves to a general statement on values. She has a strong answer on health care earlier, but that one was forgettable.

Erin Doherty Annette Choi

We’ve passed the hour mark, and Biden and Harris are pulling away in words spoken. De Blasio, who is in third, is trailing by more than 500 words.

Who held the floor on night two?

Number of words spoken by candidates participating in night two of the second Democratic debate, as of 9:07 p.m. Wednesday

Candidate Words Spoken
Joe Biden 1,591
Kamala Harris 1,435
Bill de Blasio 901
Michael Bennet 800
Cory Booker 722
Julián Castro 641
Kirsten Gillibrand 590
Tulsi Gabbard 565
Andrew Yang 459
Jay Inslee 454

Excludes words spoken in Spanish

Source: Debate Transcript via ABC News

Nathaniel Rakich

Well, CNN just missed the chance to bleep Booker.

Dan Hopkins

Biden echoes a line of defense used by Nixon in his 1960 debate with Kennedy–my counsel is private.

Geoffrey Skelley

Oy, “s***hole countries”

Galen Druke

Rakich, he is not above reproach with the left, which Biden clearly does not carte about. (Also Booker literally just accused Biden of the point I made.)

Julia Wolfe

Here comes the Biden attacks we were anticipating.

Nate Silver

And indeed the question-ducking is getting Biden in a little bit of trouble right now.

Galen Druke

Anytime someone criticizes Biden he can reply by accusing that person of criticizing Obama — someone who is above reproach with many Democrats.

Geoffrey Skelley

Yeah Nate, de Blasio tried to catch Biden on deportations and now is going after Biden again on this.

Galen Druke

One strength, perhaps unfair, that Biden has is that anytime someone criticizes him he can reply by accusing that person of criticizing Obama — someone who is above reproach with many Democrats.

Nate Silver

Biden’s gambling a bit by not being directly responsive to questions and instead invoking another talking point on the related issue. It’s a reasonably effective technique, but a candidate or moderator that really wants to pin him down could cause him problems.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Biden is touting DACA as an example of Obama’s immigration accomplishments. For what it’s worth, Obama only issued DACA after a lot of pressure from immigration rights groups. But it is one of his signature achievements now.

Geoffrey Skelley

De Blasio presses Biden on the large number of deportations under the Obama administration, but Biden pivots smartly to talking about how Obama worked to protect Dreamers. Says comparing Obama to Trump is “bizarre.”

Dan Hopkins

De Blasio transitions from crossing the border to the question of how to handle people already here without authorization. That’s an area where public opinion is more on the Dems’ side.

Clare Malone

I’d just like to take a mid-debate checkin to say that Biden seems much more in the game this debate.

Laura Bronner

Speaking as an immigrant with a PhD and a green card — why should it be limited to 7 years?

Geoffrey Skelley

Inslee gets a big applause for saying the country needs to get rid of a “white nationalist” in the White House, and then he also gets to use his gubernatorial record to talk about being one of the first governors to oppose Trump’s “Muslim ban.”

Nate Silver

Booker with another reasonably effective response, but I don’t know if he’s achieving any of his tactical objectives and he hasn’t gotten much speaking time, especially considering that his opening statement was interrupted by the protestors.


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