FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

We can’t ignore the crowds here. The CDC and WHO still recommend avoiding large, in-person gatherings, and there are currently an estimated 1,900 people on the White House lawn, according to ABC News reporting, sitting less than 6 feet apart and not required to wear masks. If this event were held elsewhere in D.C., it would violate the city’s current COVID-19 laws. This is less risky than, say, a packed convention center — the chance of transmitting COVID-19 outdoors is much lower than indoors because respiratory droplets are diluted in the open air, and the local test positivity rate in D.C. is less than 5 percent, a threshold many experts recommend places cross before returning to certain public gatherings, such as schools. But outdoor transmission isn’t impossible, we’ve had several outbreaks that stemmed from much smaller social gatherings outdoors.


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