What Went Down During President Trump’s Closing Speech At The RNC

Like most of this week, the fourth night of the RNC starts with sentiment regarding Trump underwater but with sentiment about Biden even worse. The question is, does pounding on Biden do enough to win Trump back those wavering supporters?

Yeah, Kaleigh, it’s weird to think about the fact that less than eight months ago, we were wondering about whether we were heading for a conflict with Iran. That feels … very far away.

In McCarthy’s remarks, we see some evidence of the GOP’s fundamental dilemma in this election. It’s bad politics to highlight an issue (say, COVID-19) that’s perceived as a liability. But it’s also bad politics to ignore an issue on voters’ minds.

Since we just heard mention of the killing of Qasem Soleimani, and we probably will again before the night is over, just a friendly reminder that that happened THIS YEAR. Further proof that 2020 has been approx. 87 months long.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy mentions the coronavirus directly in his video, which is a topic that didn’t get as much attention you’d expect last night.

I would think the approval numbers might be lower after seeing the visuals, Nathaniel. The setup Melania Trump spoke from was far more modest and austere by comparison.

Americans are pretty divided on it, Nate. According to YouGov, 42 percent of Americans approve of Trump giving his speech from the White House, while 38 percent disapprove.

I’m usually against journalistic pearl-clutching, but I’m honestly not sure that turning the White House lawn into a convention site, with lots of giant TRUMP-PENCE signs and whatnot, is going to go over terribly well with most Americans. It’s almost like the literal caricature of what the Trump White House would look like.

The RNC’s TV ratings dropped again last night: According to Nielsen, only 17.3 million people watched Wednesday night’s proceedings across 11 networks. That’s 5.5 million fewer people than watched the third night of the DNC, and 6.1 million fewer people than watched the third night of the 2016 RNC. Although both conventions have suffered from lower ratings than in past years, the RNC has been especially hard hit. The first three nights of the RNC have averaged 17.9 million TV viewers, while the first three nights of the DNC averaged 22.0 million.

Tonight will be the RNC’s last and best chance for a ratings bump: Historically, the last night of the convention (i.e., the night the presidential nominee speaks) has significantly higher ratings than the other nights. Trump himself drew 32.2 million eyeballs on Night 4 in 2016.

Yep, Geoff. And as early as 2016, when many white evangelicals were still skeptical about Trump, Graham defended him, saying at one point that even though Trump’s personal flaws might be troublesome, lots of figures in the Bible weren’t perfect either.

Rev. Franklin Graham, son of the late Rev. Billy Graham, offers the invocation. His daughter, Cissie Graham Lynch, spoke on Tuesday night.

These multi-day conventions (loved by some, hated by many) lead up to one thing — the nominee’s acceptance speech. Historically, these speeches have varied considerably. First, there’s the question of how long the candidates will speak, but also where they give their address (add “remote, during a pandemic” to the list), and, of course, their tone.

From hope and enthusiasm to anger and fear, nominees’ speeches take many tones, arguably reflecting each nominee’s vision for America. And as ample political science finds, the emotional dispositions of voters influence political engagement in important ways.

Last week, we heard Biden’s address, which was empathetic and compassionate. And according to our analysis of “emotional tone” (as assessed by the Linguistic Inquiry Word Count program), Biden’s speech scored a 75.5 on a 0-100 scale, where higher numbers indicate more positive tone. Evidence of his positivity? He used the words “light” and “hope” at least 10 times, and “love” eight times. In total, about 5 percent of all the words in his speech were positive, and about 2 percent were negative.

I mention this because four years ago, Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention was far more negative. In fact, it was the most negative acceptance speech in the last 40 years by a lot, according to several measures of tone or sentiment. And according to our analysis of “emotional tone,” Trump’s speech scored a 37.91 — much lower than Biden’s 75.5.

However, we’re not entirely sure what to expect tonight from Trump.

The most recent speech Trump gave to supporters — at Mount Rushmore on July 3rd, commemorating Independence Day — struck a far more positive tone, and he’s expected to strike a similar tone tonight. But that doesn’t necessarily mean his remarks won’t still draw controversy. Trump’s Rushmore remarks were certainly portrayed as divisive, with Trump referring to the wave of ongoing protests as “angry mobs” and casting himself as fighting a battle against a “new far-left fascism.” According to our assessment of “emotional tone,” however, the speech scored a 91.2, suggesting that on the whole he struck a more positive chord. But this higher score may very well reflect the president’s tendency toward superlatives — words like “magnificent,” “wonderful” and “strongly” are categorized as positive words.

Will Trump strike the same tone tonight? Or will he return to the negative rhetoric he used in 2016? Well, we’re about to find out.

Opening monologue: “Someone once said that America is great because America is good.” Accurate! This quote is often inaccurately attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville. It’s unclear where it came from, but someone definitely said it.

Earlier today, Galen Druke spoke with Sarah Frostenson and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about what to watch for on this final night of the RNC.

Tonight is the last night of the RNC and, of course, the main affair is President Trump’s speech, in which he will accept the Republican nomination and make his pitch to America for why they should elect him for four more years.

We’ll likely see a continuation of some of the themes we heard in the last four nights — the threats posed by “cancel culture” and socialism, and how Joe Biden’s America will not be safe. And if Vice President Pence’s speech last night was any indication, Trump will likely double down on a theme of law and order. An advance excerpt of his speech shows that Trump will describe this election as one where voters have never “faced a clearer choice between two parties, two visions, two philosophies, or two agendas.”

The question is: How much of public opinion on Trump is actually up for grabs at this point? And on that note, how receptive will Americans be to his messaging on the protests and to the idea that Biden’s America won’t be safe? So far, this pitch hasn’t eaten into Biden’s sizable lead over Trump in the polls.

There will also be speeches from Trump’s eldest daughter, Ivanka; Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell; Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy; and 2024 hopefuls like Sen. Tom Cotton. Be sure to follow along tonight as we react in real time with context and analysis. And if you have any questions, ping us @538politics.