What Went Down During President Trump’s Closing Speech At The RNC

In his 1980 gubernatorial reelection bid, Clinton was said to have lost because of the three Cs — Cubans, car tags, and Carter. If Trump loses, it might be a fourth C: coronavirus. But Biden will lose because of cancel culture?

Trump says Americans build the future, “we don’t tear down the past,” a clear reference to the growing push to remove statues of confederate monuments. However, Mother Nature does tear down the past: Hurricane Laura toppled a confederate statue in Lake Charles, Louisiana, last night.

At the risk of getting into Forecast Wars, I think people generally overstate the impact of the economy on a president’s reelection chances, and I also think that the dynamics of a COVID-19-induced recession might be different than a normal recession. Trump’s approval rating on the economy is still fairly decent.