FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

Trump says he will protect Medicare and Social Security, clearly important to the many older voters he hopes to win in November. But his recent executive order to give workers a temporary break from paying payroll taxes has raised the specter that a tax holiday could become permanent and harm the long-term solvency of Social Security.

Nathaniel Rakich

It’s worth remembering that Trump consistently trailed Biden by 6 points in national polling both before and during the first few months of the pandemic. It wasn’t until June that Biden opened up his current 8- or 9-point lead.

Galen Druke

I think if you removed coronavirus from the equation but kept the unrest in cities and Trump could run on the economy and “law and order,” he’d be a favorite.


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