FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

It’s worth remembering that Trump consistently trailed Biden by 6 points in national polling both before and during the first few months of the pandemic. It wasn’t until June that Biden opened up his current 8- or 9-point lead.

Galen Druke

I think if you removed coronavirus from the equation but kept the unrest in cities and Trump could run on the economy and “law and order,” he’d be a favorite.

Micah Cohen

But Chris, his approval rating was still pretty bad pre-pandemic. Wouldn’t the race have been more of a 50-50 toss-up?


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