What Went Down During President Trump’s Closing Speech At The RNC

This is a pretty perfunctory political speech — not the kind of address you’d expect from someone who really needs to make up ground in the polls. According to our forecast, Biden currently has a 70 in 100 chance of winning the Electoral College.

Yes, Julia, I keep thinking about Lynn Vavreck’s book “The Message Matters.” Vavreck argues that when conditions are good, incumbents should run clarifying campaigns that highlight those conditions. Since conditions aren’t helpful to Trump right now, he’s got to find an insurgent issue on which Biden is constrained.

Wow, I have to say, Micah, I am surprised that health care tops the coronavirus outbreak. Many polls haven’t differentiated between the two, so I think I’d been assuming when health care was the No. 1 issue, it was largely driven by the coronavirus.