FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

I’m not sure how much we can say about Biden’s convention bounce because there weren’t really any live-caller polls taken in between the DNC and RNC, and live-caller polls tend to be “bouncier” than online polls and to show larger swings. So I’m not sure if it’s completely apples-to-apples to compare Biden’s bounce with the bounces from conventions past. Still, it at the very least does not appear to be a particularly large bounce, nor would you necessarily have expected one. I had a long Twitter thread on that this morning.


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