FiveThirtyEight
Tony Chow

The CNN broadcast of the RNC has cut away just now to give an update on Hurricane Laura.

Seth Masket

One thing I’ve been wondering in this discussion is what we even mean when we talk about a candidate winning over suburban moms. Has there actually been polling on this? Do we have a common definition of “suburban?” Is this all based on some reading of 2004 exit polls?

Galen Druke

I think that when it comes to Trump and college-educated white women, it is an awful lot about tone and character. During a report I did on the “ultimate Romney-Clinton” district in Houston, a GOP strategist told me pretty bluntly that Trump will “never be their cup of tea.” Even when the economy was doing great in the fall of 2018, they didn’t turn out for Republicans in that district. So, really, I’m not sure what kind of message a surrogate could give that could change negative views on Trump’s character. They are so baked in.


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