What Went Down On Night 3 Of The RNC

Nate Silver

I’m not sure how much we can say about Biden’s convention bounce because there weren’t really any live-caller polls taken in between the DNC and RNC, and live-caller polls tend to be “bouncier” than online polls and to show larger swings. So I’m not sure if it’s completely apples-to-apples to compare Biden’s bounce with the bounces from conventions past. Still, it at the very least does not appear to be a particularly large bounce, nor would you necessarily have expected one. I had a long Twitter thread on that this morning.

Biden's Electoral College win probability down a bit, to 70%, after some mediocre polls for him this morning. He had been hovering around 73% in recent days. So not a big shift, but worth a quick Twitter thread.https://t.co/ajG88SznSA
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 26, 2020

Meena Ganesan

9:32 pm

We commissioned a SurveyMonkey Audience poll of 2,290 American NFL fans in 2017. Here’s how every NFL team’s fans lean politically:

Nathaniel Rakich

9:32 pm

I don’t really think it’s been targeted at anyone specifically? Like the other two nights, it’s been pretty scattershot.

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