FiveThirtyEight
Galen Druke

Julia, earlier you posed a question about how distinct Trump’s GOP is from the GOP heretofore. But that is THE question of the past four years, right? It’s a complex question, but in strictly demographic terms, I think the current GOP (Trump’s GOP ) is the product of swapping out college-educate white voters from the GOP — almost voter for voter — in favor of white voters without college degrees. It’s not a wholly new party, but it has shifted electoral incentives, and some policies have been thrown out while others have been dramatically emphasized, in the process.


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