What Went Down On Night 2 Of The RNC

Republican House candidates outperformed Trump in 2016 and Trump has never been particularly popular. If we are evaluating the counterfactual where a generic Republican like Pence had won in 2016 and then established a somewhat normal administration, I would guess the generic Republican would be in much better shape for reelection.

Galen, that is a tough question. On the one hand, Pence is not as an unpopular as Trump, so I could see him performing better than the president. On the other hand, the effect of COVID-19 on Pence’s standing is impossible to know (as others have mentioned).

I’d guess that Pence would be up in the polls relative to Trump, with a much tighter race between him and Biden. But like Nate said, a big factor is how the COVID-19 response would be different. My guess is probably not much (especially given the variation in responses by state governors and city mayors) and we’d still see Biden leading in the polls.