FiveThirtyEight
Shom Mazumder

I’d guess that Pence would be up in the polls relative to Trump, with a much tighter race between him and Biden. But like Nate said, a big factor is how the COVID-19 response would be different. My guess is probably not much (especially given the variation in responses by state governors and city mayors) and we’d still see Biden leading in the polls.

Nate Silver

There have actually been a couple of Biden-Pence polls, Galen, one of which showed Biden ahead by 17 and another showed Biden ahead by 7. But it’s sort of a weird hypothetical because if Pence was leading the ticket, the response to COVID-19 might have been different, etc.

Galen Druke

Where would Pence be in the polls right now if he was leading the ticket?


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