FiveThirtyEight
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Tiffany Trump shared some memories of her father in her RNC speech in 2016 — but as I recall, it came off a little stilted. Maybe that’s one reason they went another direction this time?

Julia Azari

I think that’s true, Galen. It would be interesting (and I haven’t done it) to see how different Trump’s 2016 coalition was from Romney’s voters, versus how different Romney’s was from McCain’s, and so on. The shifting racial dynamics of the party go back to the 1980 election, and even before.

Galen Druke

Julia, earlier you posed a question about how distinct Trump’s GOP is from the GOP heretofore. But that is THE question of the past four years, right? It’s a complex question, but in strictly demographic terms, I think the current GOP (Trump’s GOP ) is the product of swapping out college-educate white voters from the GOP — almost voter for voter — in favor of white voters without college degrees. It’s not a wholly new party, but it has shifted electoral incentives, and some policies have been thrown out while others have been dramatically emphasized, in the process.


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