FiveThirtyEight
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

We’re hearing about the spiritual transformation of Jon Ponder, a formerly incarcerated person who was pardoned by Trump ahead of the RNC. Ponder converted to Christianity in prison and later founded the nonprofit Hope for Prisoners, which is part of the large network of Christian ministries that work with incarcerated and formerly incarcerated people. Their activism is one reason that prison reform has been embraced by Republicans in recent years.

Nate Silver

There isn’t necessarily a ton of good polling on the Native American vote, but Hillary Clinton won Arizona’s Apache County, which is 77 percent Native American and covers much of Navajo Nation, by a 62-30 margin in 2016.

Meredith Conroy

Sarah, I think tonight will be similar to last night, in that it will play to the GOP base. One change I anticipate is more focus on immigration, which Trump’s 2016 campaign (and the 2018 midterms) leaned into, hard. According to a Pew poll from September 2019, there is a huge gap in Democrats’ and Republicans’ opinions that illegal immigration is a “major problem” facing the U.S. Nearly 70 percent of Republicans say “illegal immigration” is a “major problem” compared with just 23 percent of Democrats.


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