FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

Klacik, speaking now, is running for Maryland’s 7th Congressional District. She says her campaign raised $3 million since that ad of hers went viral next week, but donors may as well have lit their money on fire: Clinton carried the Maryland 7th by 56 points.

Julia Azari

I am curious how lines about Trump protecting Western civilization and “we settled a continent” (who is we?) will land with different groups of voters.

Nate Silver

Klacik is really the first speaker who’s trying to reach outside the GOP base — which is not to say the base won’t like what she has to say, too.

Clare Malone

This ad is what got Kim Klacik her speaking spot, I think.

Matt Grossmann

Some Republican members of Congress, especially those affiliated with the Tea Party movement, used Trump-like rhetoric on Twitter and pursued similar nationalist priorities, even before Trump won the Republican nomination. Now, many have adopted the style.

Clare Malone

I do think it’s interesting that the first two speakers at this RNC were white women in their 30s or 40s — Team Trump seems worried about, as Trump would put it, “suburban housewives,” so I wonder if this programming choice isn’t incredibly pointed.

Nate Silver

“Biden is a Trojan horse for Ocasio-Cortez” is not necessarily a terrible argument, given the poor hand that the GOP has dealt itself. But it does seem to concede that Biden himself is not so much of a threat.

Shom Mazumder

Gaetz continues with the theme of law-and-order politics by painting a picture of what Biden’s America might look like. He also mentions Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. It’ll be interesting to see if future speakers continue to attempt to use internal divisions within the Democratic Party as an argument against Biden.

Geoffrey Skelley

Gaetz claims that Biden is a vessel for the far left, hitting many favorite conservative talking points — such as saying MS-13 will be a menace and attacking “woke” culture.

Nathaniel Rakich

Here’s Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, a close Trump ally. At age 38, he is considered a rising star in the GOP, but he is currently facing an ethics investigation over his spending habits.

Seth Masket

CNN seems to be doing more RNC branding than the actual RNC is. The signage used by the convention places the nominee’s name first, and sometimes doesn’t even mention the party.

Clare Malone

Aesthetically, we’re already seeing a difference between the RNC and DNC. This programming has a lot of podiums in it so far, whereas the DNC had a more casual, Zoom interview from the house vibe. A bit more intimate. Obviously, we’re still in the first few minutes of this program, but the flags and the marble are a different vibe.

Nate Silver

So, the GOP flew this woman to Washington, D.C., instead of filming her at her business in Billings, Montana, which I bet would present some pretty nice visuals. There’s clearly a subtext here of preserving the tradition of conventions and trying to emphasize that things are “normal.”

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Small business owner Tanya Weinreis is talking about her experience getting a PPP loan during the COVID-19 pandemic. The PPP — short for the Paycheck Protection Program — allowed small businesses to apply for forgivable loans, if they used the money for payroll or operating expenses. It had a bumpy rollout in April, when the banks responsible for administering the loans struggled to deal with the huge surge of demand. But since then, even though the program wasn’t perfect — some large chains, like Shake Shack, initially qualified for multi-million-dollar loans while minority-owned businesses appear to have been less likely to get loans — many economists I’ve spoken with agree that it’s helped a lot of businesses like Weinreis’s stay afloat in an incredibly turbulent economy. However, the program stopped accepting applications on Aug. 8, and so far there’s no sign that Congress is close to renewing it.

Kaleigh Rogers

Galen, as you know, that also featured prominently this morning, with Pence promising the crowd that the GOP will “back the blue” (a favorite catchphrase of his).

Shom Mazumder

It’s interesting to see how Friedrichs links anti-union sentiment with law-and-order politics. This type of issue linkage is new (as far as I know).

Galen Druke

Americans on the whole really don’t like the idea of defunding the police, so I would expect to hear plenty about that this week.

Nathaniel Rakich

It also polls very well, Amelia.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

School choice has been a longstanding Republican priority. I wonder if it will gain new urgency and popularity, though, because of the COVID-19 pandemic — since private schools are much likelier to be reopening in person than public schools.

Clare Malone

This teacher is interesting — her talk is leaning into this idea that liberals (in this case, unions) are pushing a different and wrong version of American history. I find our current battle over the past to be one of the most fascinating parts of the cultural reckoning that’s been going on, first on a simmer and now on a rapid boil, since Obama’s election.

Nathaniel Rakich

The second speaker, Rebecca Friedrichs, is attacking teacher’s unions and promoting charter schools and voucher programs. This was also a theme of this morning’s festivities, and it’s one of those bread-and-butter issues that you don’t hear about much in the current culture-war-forward news environment but might still resonate with everyday people.

Emily Scherer

This certainly has a different energy than the last week. Multiple camera angles, sweeping shots, animated intro packages. Trump isn’t a stranger to a live television production, he did several live finales in his time on both The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice. Sadoux Kim, who worked with Mark Burnett on The Apprentice, was brought in as a consultant for this “virtual” convention.

Clare Malone

I think it’s no mistake that the RNC is kicking off with a young face as its first speaker. Yes, a young white man who doesn’t represent the protest movements led by young people around the country right now, but I think that’s the point: to show an American young person who likes the current American political order and believes in, as the intro package pointedly said, “rugged individualism and American exceptionalism.”

Tony Chow

4 Years Ago

With the 2020 RNC kicking off tonight, I’m remembering back to four years ago when we were in Cleveland at the 2016 GOP national convention. We filmed this video on the convention floor after Trump’s closing speech. “A bit of a surreal night, to be honest. And a lot of popping balloons,” Clare Malone said. I wonder what this year’s RNC has in store for us.

Julia Azari

The Kirk speech was interesting in light of what I just observed about linkages to the past. He reached back to Lincoln and talked about preservation. Anti-Trump Republicans are also vying for the Lincoln legacy.

Matt Grossmann

In 1996, Republican nominee Bob Dole said “I’m not bound by the platform. I probably agree with most everything in it, but I haven’t read it.” He was disclaiming responsibility for traditional wording feuds on the platform committee. The Trump-led party abandoned platform writing entirely. It is emblematic of the limited second term agenda Trump has outlined. Even if you count the list of bullet points the campaign released as a kind of substitute, it is more a list of aspirations than legislation he hopes to pass.

Nathaniel Rakich

According to CNN, these people are speaking from a classically decorated Mellon Auditorium in Washington, D.C., but there doesn’t appear to be an audience. So it’s kind of a mix between an in-person convention and a virtual one, similar to the setting Harris and Biden spoke in on the last two nights of the DNC.

Chris Jackson

Tracking the response to the RNC on Twitter (which is not real life), we see as the first night gets under way that the large majority of conversation is about Trump. The rest of the RNC slate is generating little conversation. This reflects the extent to which this convention is about the president, not the Republican party.

Kaleigh Rogers

And while the Democrats adopted a formal platform last week, the convention itself didn’t dive too deep on policy goals. It was much more of a general overlook at what issues matter to them, which the GOP can certainly do sans platform.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

I mean, Micah, some of the platform is actually out of date. Trump has already done some of the stuff in the 2016 platform — like relocating the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Does it matter to ordinary Americans? I’m sure it doesn’t. But it’s definitely a bold choice, to elevate candidate over policy.

Julia Azari

Micah, in some ways I think there are some questions about the GOP’s policy goals, given the push and pull between Trump and more traditional Republicans. Matt has written about this with his co-author, Dave Hopkins. Trump’s nationalist goals, particularly where immigration and trade are concerned, aren’t necessarily shared by all Congressional Republicans.

Micah Cohen

Following up on Matt’s point about the GOP’s lack of a traditional platform … I certainly agree it’s unusual, but (and I’m stealing this point from someone else on staff) is there any real confusion about what the GOP’s policy goals are? In other words, is it really that big a deal?

Nate Silver

No offense to Charlie Kirk but like … Charlie Kirk talking about cancel culture is really how you want to open the evening portion of your convention?

Shom Mazumder

“The American way of life means you follow the law…” says Kirk. This is likely not the only time we’re going to hear law and order-type appeals during the convention.

Clare Malone

Charlie Kirk’s speech is interesting in that it continues the 2016 frame of attacking the establishment. Of course, Kirk is defending the current president, so it’s a more difficult proposition; he’s defending the current establishment.

Seth Masket

Kirk: Trump “is the bodyguard of Western civilization.”

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Cardinal Timothy Dolan gave the opening prayer. Dolan got some pushback for agreeing to do this, but it’s not his first foray into politics. During Obama’s presidency, he led the Catholic Church in opposing the contraception mandate and rejecting a series of proposed compromises, saying they were insufficient to protect the conscience of religious employers, like the Catholic Church, who oppose birth control. Times sure have changed, though: Just last month, the Supreme Court upheld a Trump administration rule that lets any employer opt out of the contraception mandate for religious reasons.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

One of the central political tensions of the COVID-19 crisis — whether to focus on the public health response or the economy — got a mention in the first video. I bet we’re going to hear a lot more about that tonight.

Matt Grossmann

Republican platforms, convention speeches and presidential rhetoric all traditionally contain more American national imagery (such as flags and statues) than those of the Democrats.

Clare Malone

“Rugged individualism and American exceptionalism” are used within 30 seconds of the RNC prime time kickoff. I think that will tell you everything about this program!

Nate Silver

The optimism in the opening montage is very standard for an incumbent party convention. But is a harder sell in the midst of a pandemic. And it is, shall we say, a contrast with the darker themes often emphasized by President Trump.

Shom Mazumder

How unusual is this lack of a party platform? Political scientist David Fortunato at the University of California, San Diego, shows that the answer is very. Of party platforms across United States, Canada and Europe from 1920-2020, the 2020 Republic Party Platform is the only party platform to have zero policy statements.

Julia Azari

Grading The Democrats — Cumulative Final!

So, how did the Democrats do overall?

Address important party groups: Adequate. In the end, the Democrats spoke about diversity and touched on a few issues relevant to important racial and ethnic groups within the party, including immigration and police violence. They also featured women and people of color prominently in each night’s lineup, but the question of group outreach is ultimately connected to policy, which the Democrats sort of neglected last week.

Create party unity: Exemplary. This is a tough category because we probably won’t know for a while whether the convention really did anything to improve party unity. But Democrats did work to include voices from the progressive wing of the party, including a prime-time address for Sen. Bernie Sanders, and they showcased Biden’s former competitors for the nomination. Plus, they featured a range of younger Democratic leaders alongside prominent Republicans who are now backing Biden. Democrats showed they have a wide coalition.

Reach beyond the party base: Exemplary. It’s not clear whether the strategy worked – did including people like former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Quibi CEO Meg Whitman and former Secretary of State Colin Powell appeal to Republicans, independents or moderate Democrats? But the DNC clearly tried to make the case that the election wasn’t just about Democratic policy stances but about values held beyond the Democratic base.

Command the news cycle: Adequate. Again, I’m not totally sure how to evaluate effort versus success here. In some ways, a virtual convention seems a little like a vice presidential selection in that too much media attention can be a bad thing. And it’s hard to command a news cycle in 2020. But the keynote speeches each night seemed reasonably well received, and that might be as much as anyone can ask for.

Rally sentiment against Republicans: Proficient. The convention was very focused on the shortcomings of the Trump administration, emphasizing Trump’s character and personality. But is this really pushing back against Republican ideas, or simply against Trump?

Explain and publicize the party’s positions: Inadequate. On balance, if you weren’t someone who follows politics closely, you might not have come away from the convention with a totally clear sense of the agenda. Sen. Elizabeth Warren was more substantive on this front, as she often is. But a great deal of time was dedicated to outlining Trump’s failures and talking about Biden’s character and authenticity. His speech laid out more of an agenda, but earlier speeches could have touched more on policy themes.


Looking ahead to the RNC, we will have the same basic criteria, but the convention is already quite a bit different. For starters, the GOP is the incumbent party in the White House, which means it has to defend its record. Republican Party politics has been a weird mix of disruption and business as usual in planning for the convention, so with any luck, the next few days will help us get a better handle on exactly what that means this fall.

Julia Azari

I want to pick up on Seth’s point about how the different conventions engage with the past. For the RNC, it seems like a pretty clean break with the past, which started with the 2016 RNC. (No former presidents or presidential candidates spoke at that convention.) This is a sharp contrast with the DNC last week, which featured all living past Democratic presidents (Carter, Clinton, Obama) as well as former first lady Michelle Obama plus 2016 and 2004 nominees Hillary Clinton and John Kerry. The Democrats seemed to be trying very hard to create a sense of continuity with the party’s recent past, maybe even at the expense of the usual keynotes featuring rising stars.

Seth Masket

It’s good to keep in mind all the party norm violations we’ve already seen before this convention even gets going tonight. The RNC decided to forgo writing a platform. It held its state roll call this morning, something that viewers usually watch in prime time. The vice president came out and gave a speech, and then Trump spoke for a lengthy period of time about a range of things. And, of course, no previous Republican presidents, and almost no previous Republican presidential candidates, will be speaking during this convention. The fact that this convention is mostly online seems like a relatively mild deviation from the past.

Nathaniel Rakich

The 2020 RNC actually convened this morning for party business (i.e., the stuff they don’t care about putting in prime time). This included the roll call of the states, which, unlike the DNC’s, was not a tour around the country, but rather happened in person at the GOP convention hall in Charlotte.

Unusually, the morning’s proceedings also featured in-person speeches from Trump and Pence as they received enough delegates to clinch the Republican nominations.

Kaleigh Rogers

The RNC Is Taking COVID-19 Precautions For In-Person Attendees

Unlike the Democratic convention last week, which was called to order in the largely empty Wisconsin Center in Milwaukee, the RNC opened today to a room full of delegates in Charlotte, North Carolina. But with COVID-19 still spreading across the country, the GOP has pared down the in-person events and put precautions in place to try to avoid spreading the virus with a crowded, indoor event the size of years past. For starters, only 336 delegates were expected to attend — a fraction of the 2,472 delegates who participated in person in 2016 — and as of last week, attendees have been required to report symptoms daily.

Precautions are similar to those taken by the Democrats last week: Attendees must provide negative test results prior to traveling, practice social distancing and wear face masks. But photos from Monday’s RNC opening show many participants not following these protocols, including maskless attendees standing less than six feet apart. Vice President Mike Pence made an appearance Monday afternoon, and while he didn’t wear a mask, he did greet GOP chair Ronna McDaniel with a COVID-safe elbow bump in lieu of a handshake or hug.



Large, indoor gatherings are considered one of the highest-risk activities for contracting COVID-19 due to the lack of airflow and difficulty maintaining social distance. That said, McDaniel ended Monday’s morning proceedings by thanking Charlotte for hosting and saying that everyone was flying home today, suggesting the rest of the convention would be largely virtual, just like the DNC.

Tony Chow

What To Watch For This Week

Earlier today, Galen Druke spoke with Sarah Frostenson and Micah Cohen to discuss the 2020 Republican National Convention — what to watch for tonight and what to look forward to later this week.

Nathaniel Rakich

Will More People Watch The RNC?

We now have TV ratings from every night of last week’s DNC. Overall, they were pretty low: The convention averaged only 21.6 million TV viewers per night, down from an average of 26.2 million in 2016. It’s unclear if that’s because total viewership is down or people are just watching online instead (streaming numbers are not included in Nielsen ratings).

The 2020 DNC’s TV ratings were down

Number of viewers age 2 or older who tuned into the 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 Democratic National Conventions on major TV channels

Night 2008 2012 2016 2020
Monday 22.3m 26.0m 19.7m
Tuesday 26.0 26.2m 24.7 19.2
Wednesday 24.0 25.1 24.4 22.8
Thursday 38.4 35.7 29.8 24.6

The 2012 DNC did not have Monday night programming.

Source: Nielsen

This week, I’ll be watching to see how the RNC compares. In 2016, the RNC averaged 24.6 million TV viewers a night — a tad lower than the DNC. However, the night of Donald Trump’s speech drew more eyeballs than the night of Hillary Clinton’s.

How will the RNC’s TV ratings compare?

Number of viewers age 2 or older who tuned into the 2008, 2012 and 2016 Republican National Conventions on major TV channels

Night 2008 2012 2016
Monday 23.0m
Tuesday 21.5m 22.3m 19.8
Wednesday 37.2 21.9 23.4
Thursday 38.9 30.3 32.2

The 2008 and 2012 RNCs did not have Monday night programming.

Source: Nielsen

(In case you’re wondering, there has been no relationship in recent cycles between convention TV ratings and the winner of the election.)

Sarah Frostenson

Welcome!

We’re back for week two of the conventions, with Republicans now in the driver’s seat. We’re not entirely sure what to expect, as there are a number of reports that suggest a lot of the planning for the convention has been very last minute — and maybe even still happening. (President Trump has reportedly said he wants more live speeches than the DNC had and is even expected to speak each night, according to CNN.)

It’s hardly the splashy, in-person convention Trump wanted, but these next four days will be important as Trump is trailing Joe Biden significantly in the polls. In fact, as Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich wrote on Monday, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the conventions since 1968, so a convention bounce could really be make-or-break for the president.


Follow along as we react in real time, providing thoughtful analysis of tonight’s events. If you have questions please be sure to ping us at @538politics.


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