FiveThirtyEight
Perry Bacon Jr.

If Nikole Hannah-Jones was the Democratic nominee, some of this convention would make more sense. Casting America as having a history of racism, criticizing the Founders — that’s not really the view of the official Democratic Party, but the view of people who are fairly critical of the official Democratic Party. The Black Lives Matter protesters who are being cast as allied with the Democratic Party often hate the Democratic Party.

Matt Grossmann

This matches Trump Jr.’s speech in 2016, which again seemed to match conventional Republican talking points more than the other children’s speeches. He has also pursued the traditional up-and-coming conservative route since then, writing books titled “Liberal Privilege” and “Triggered” to appeal to the Fox News audience.

Nathaniel Rakich

A recent, way-too-early poll of the 2024 Republican primary for president gave Pence 31 percent, Trump Jr. 17 percent, Haley 11 percent, Mitt Romney 9 percent and Ted Cruz 8 percent.


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