What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

Problem is, even if Sanders wins Arizona, he’ll likely be getting crushed in Florida while also losing Ohio and Illinois. Just not much there for him to hang his hat on if he’s losing those other three states.

I really want to say the cake is baked, but to game this out a bit — say Sanders wins Washington handily and then he has a strong debate performance. Maybe he’s able to eke out a victory next Tuesday in Arizona, which our model does not currently project happening, but could happen? At least demographically, that seems like it could be another potentially OK state for him (more s0 than Florida at this point, anyway). It is troubling for his campaign that he doesn’t seem to have done better in Michigan. He needed to win there, or at least have it be close.

The West is probably the region you’d want to be weak in. It’s not like he’s gonna lose California or Washington in the general election. And it’s not like he’s going to win Idaho or something. The states that matter more are Nevada and Arizona — Biden did OK-ish in Nevada and we’ll see about Arizona next week.