FiveThirtyEight
Micah Cohen

It matters. Of course it does. But it would take some stunning numbers out of Washington to change our understanding of the race.

Nathaniel Rakich

Nate, I think the cake is baked. Michigan was the big prize in terms of delegates. Maybe we’d have to reassess if Sanders wins Washington by an unexpectedly huge margin — say, by a margin larger than Biden’s in Michigan? But even then, Michigan is worth more delegates, and Biden’s regional strength in the Midwest (where there are other big states yet to vote) is intangibly valuable.

Geoffrey Skelley

It doesn’t matter if Sanders wins those later states. Michigan was the big prize, and he needed a better performance there.


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