FiveThirtyEight
Perry Bacon Jr.

Sanders and his team went really hard for Michigan. This is the kind of state that Sanders has suggested that he, and not other Democratic candidates, can flip in the general election. The primary electorate is different, of course. But this is a big loss for Sanders, not just in terms of delegates but in terms of his own case for being the Democratic nominee.

Nathaniel Rakich

Nate, you would have lost that money.

Nate Silver

Did you really think Sanders’s chances in Michigan were just 1 in 100, though, Rakich? I mean, I know that’s what our model said, and our model has been really really well calibrated over time. But, LOL, after 2016, I think I’d have put a lot of money on Bernie at 100-1!


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