What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

Did you really think Sanders’s chances in Michigan were just 1 in 100, though, Rakich? I mean, I know that’s what our model said, and our model has been really really well calibrated over time. But, LOL, after 2016, I think I’d have put a lot of money on Bernie at 100-1!

On one hand, nothing unexpected has happened yet tonight. Biden had a 99 in 100 chance to win all three states that have been called so far tonight; you’d expect North Dakota, Idaho and Washington to be closer. However, “as expected” gets you to a near-certain Biden nomination at this point. Sanders can’t just win those three Western states; he needed to pull off a surprise (and specifically in Michigan).

Here’s what I’ll say: Bernie Sanders must have some kind of whiplash given the last two weeks. He was the presumptive nominee back then. Oof.