FiveThirtyEight
Clare Malone

Here’s what I’ll say: Bernie Sanders must have some kind of whiplash given the last two weeks. He was the presumptive nominee back then. Oof.

Nate Silver

The margin in Michigan is still somewhat up in the air. We don’t have a lot of votes from Detroit or Flint reported yet. And we don’t know the mix of Election Day-to-absentee vote — nor the order in which they’re being reported, which may vary by county — or exactly who is doing better in which count. But, obviously, this is the sort of state that Sanders needed to win by some margin to be on track for the nomination.

Sarah Frostenson

So with 31 percent of precincts reporting, Michigan has been called for Biden, and he currently leads Sanders by 12 points (53 percent to 41 percent). Obviously, that might narrow or widen as the night unfolds — but where does that put us in evaluating how the polls did in Michigan this year?


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