FiveThirtyEight
Perry Bacon Jr.

Clyburn, a Biden booster, was on NPR tonight suggesting that a big Biden night should result in the DNC not having any more debates (presumably after the one on Sunday).

Geoffrey Skelley

One fundamental problem for Sanders remains his inability to win over self-identified Democrats. It was a problem for him in 2016, too, and it’s not clear that he’s improved on that front. Take Missouri: the preliminary exit poll has Biden leading Sanders by 30 points among Democrats and Sanders ahead by 20 points among independents. But two-thirds of the electorate identified as Democratic versus less than one-third as independent. You have to win among Democrats to win a Democratic primary.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

I think a lot of voters could be pretty mad at Sanders if Biden does wrap up the nomination but Sanders doesn’t drop out. I was really struck, in talking to voters in Michigan over the weekend, by how tired some of them seemed of the primary. There was a kind of sentiment of — ok, we’ve finally got someone the party is coalescing around, let’s stop fighting and get ready to beat Trump in November. Of course, Sanders might stay in regardless, but a drawn-out fight with an all-but-foregone conclusion doesn’t seem like it’s going to win him a lot of brownie points (outside his base) this year.


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