What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

One fundamental problem for Sanders remains his inability to win over self-identified Democrats. It was a problem for him in 2016, too, and it’s not clear that he’s improved on that front. Take Missouri: the preliminary exit poll has Biden leading Sanders by 30 points among Democrats and Sanders ahead by 20 points among independents. But two-thirds of the electorate identified as Democratic versus less than one-third as independent. You have to win among Democrats to win a Democratic primary.

I think a lot of voters could be pretty mad at Sanders if Biden does wrap up the nomination but Sanders doesn’t drop out. I was really struck, in talking to voters in Michigan over the weekend, by how tired some of them seemed of the primary. There was a kind of sentiment of — ok, we’ve finally got someone the party is coalescing around, let’s stop fighting and get ready to beat Trump in November. Of course, Sanders might stay in regardless, but a drawn-out fight with an all-but-foregone conclusion doesn’t seem like it’s going to win him a lot of brownie points (outside his base) this year.

I’m not sure Sanders would even drop out if he’s mathematically eliminated.