What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

There’s an added wrinkle in Michigan. Since the state has vastly expanded absentee voting this year, we don’t know the mix of absentee versus early votes, either in terms of who did better in each vote or in what order they’re being reported. The results so far are clearly good for Biden in that they’re what you’d expect if Biden wins, although they’re not great for him (i.e. probably not a 25-point blowout). But an absentee versus election day voting gap means there’s more uncertainty there than you might think.

To Clare’s larger point, though: I can’t imagine the Trump campaign is super happy with how the Democratic primary has developed.

I’m very skeptical of reading much into primary results when it comes to the general election. For one thing, in most states, we’re talking about a much smaller share of the overall electorate showing up and voting than will show up in the general election.