FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

Yeah, I’ll refrain from teasing this out too much, but if Biden continues to win over white voters without a college degree — a group Clinton did not fare well with in 2016 — it does seem to bode at least somewhat well in some states in the Midwest like Michigan and Ohio, even if it’s just the primary.

Nate Silver

I think that’s probably right, Micah. Although, the places where Biden is performing well relative to Clinton has some interesting implications for why Clinton lost — something for a longer analysis, not for this live blog.

Micah Cohen

Clare, I think the default FiveThirtyEight position is something like, “don’t made predictions about the general election based on primary performance”?


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