FiveThirtyEight
Clare Malone

Here’s a question, since it’s going to be a boring night for us minus Michigan: Will a strong Biden win in Michigan give us any hints about what states could be in play come the general? I’m thinking, of course, about the way that states tend to vote in regionally cohesive ways. I.e., could Wisconsin and Ohio be more fertile ground in the general if we see a big Biden win? Or, should we go with the boring but oh-so-FiveThirtyEight answer of “primaries are very particular.”

Geoffrey Skelley

Looking at Missouri’s preliminary exit polling now that it’s been called, a sliver of good news for Sanders is that he only lost among black voters there 69 percent to 28 percent. Perhaps he’ll perform a little better among black voters farther north after struggling with them in the South. After all, a 41-point deficit is better than the 75-point deficit he faced in Mississippi, for example. However, the bad news for Sanders is that he still lost that part of the electorate by a huge margin.

Sarah Frostenson

ABC News projects Biden will win the Missouri primary, based on the exit poll results.


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