What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

I think that’s probably right, Micah. Although, the places where Biden is performing well relative to Clinton has some interesting implications for why Clinton lost — something for a longer analysis, not for this live blog.

Clare, I think the default FiveThirtyEight position is something like, “don’t made predictions about the general election based on primary performance”?

Here’s a question, since it’s going to be a boring night for us minus Michigan: Will a strong Biden win in Michigan give us any hints about what states could be in play come the general? I’m thinking, of course, about the way that states tend to vote in regionally cohesive ways. I.e., could Wisconsin and Ohio be more fertile ground in the general if we see a big Biden win? Or, should we go with the boring but oh-so-FiveThirtyEight answer of “primaries are very particular.”