What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries
Oakland County, Michigan, is a well-to-do county in suburban Detroit — the kind of place you’d have expected Buttigieg or Klobuchar to do well. Biden winning it is yet another sign that he has inherited the college-educated white vote in this primary. (See also: Biden winning affluent suburbs of Boston last week.)
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Michigan
At 8 p.m. Eastern, most of the polls in Michigan closed (although some counties in the Upper Peninsula will continue voting until 9 p.m. Eastern). As of this morning, Biden had a greater than 99 in 100 chance of winning the state. He is forecasted to get 59 percent of the vote and Sanders 35 percent, on average. We expect Sanders to do better than that across most of the state, but Biden should rack up huge margins in Detroit, which falls predominantly in the 13th and 14th districts. Here’s our forecast by congressional district:
Biden is ahead in Michigan and dominant in Detroit
Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Michigan congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9 a.m. on March 10
| District | Biden | Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| MI-01 | 58% | 36% |
| MI-02 | 56 | 38 |
| MI-03 | 57 | 37 |
| MI-04 | 57 | 37 |
| MI-05 | 59 | 35 |
| MI-06 | 58 | 36 |
| MI-07 | 57 | 37 |
| MI-08 | 56 | 38 |
| MI-09 | 56 | 37 |
| MI-10 | 56 | 38 |
| MI-11 | 55 | 39 |
| MI-12 | 56 | 37 |
| MI-13 | 65 | 29 |
| MI-14 | 66 | 28 |
| State | 59 | 35 |
One thing I’ll be watching tonight as the results roll in are the gender divides. According to the preliminary exit polls in Mississippi, there was a gender gap in support for Sanders: he got the support of 23 percent of men in Mississippi, but only 18 percent of women. That’s basically what we’ve seen in the primary so far — the size of the gap varies, but Sanders consistently gets more support from men than from women.