What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries
What Previous Exit Polls Tell Us About Michigan Voters
Michigan’s exit polls show that the 2016 Democratic electorate was more college-educated and more liberal than the 2008 electorate — but, at the same time, a smaller share identified as Democrats than in 2008 and a larger share identified as independent. This combination proved especially good for Sanders in Michigan in 2016, as he narrowly won the state in an upset victory over Clinton. The question is whether he’ll have the same advantages this time around, especially among white voters without a college degree.
Unfortunately, due to a sampling problem, Michigan’s exit poll this year will not include the telephone survey that was conducted to capture the opinions of early and absentee voters there, who make up roughly 40 percent of voters in the state’s Democratic primary. As a result, we won’t be using these exit polls for analysis at FiveThirtyEight.
Who voted in past Michigan primaries?
Share of Michigan primary voters by demographic group and year in past presidential election cycles
| race | 2008 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|
| White | 72% | 70% |
| Black | 23 | 21 |
| Hispanic/Latino | 1 | 3 |
| Asian | 1 | 2 |
| Other | 3 | 4 |
| age | 2008 | 2016 |
| 18-29 | 17% | 19% |
| 30-44 | 26 | 26 |
| 45-64 | 43 | 35 |
| 65+ | 15 | 20 |
| education | 2008 | 2016 |
| College degree | 35% | 46% |
| No college degree | 65 | 54 |
| ideology | 2008 | 2016 |
| Liberal | 49% | 57% |
| Moderate | 41 | 33 |
| Conservative | 10 | 9 |
| Party | 2008 | 2016 |
| Democrat | 79% | 69% |
| Independent/Other | 18 | 27 |
| Republican | 3 | 4 |
Decision Desk HQ is up to 30,000 votes in Michigan, all from Oakland County, and Biden leads 54-43 there. That was a county that Clinton won by 5 points in 2016.
In Mississippi, roughly two-thirds of the electorate was black in today’s primary, according to the preliminary exit poll. And black voters went for Biden 84 percent to 13 percent over Sanders. Not remotely close. And that’s exactly right, Nate — it’ll be interesting to see if Sanders falls short of the 15 percent delegate mark in Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District, which is about two-thirds black. He didn’t reach it there in 2016.