FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

Decision Desk HQ is up to 30,000 votes in Michigan, all from Oakland County, and Biden leads 54-43 there. That was a county that Clinton won by 5 points in 2016.

Geoffrey Skelley

In Mississippi, roughly two-thirds of the electorate was black in today’s primary, according to the preliminary exit poll. And black voters went for Biden 84 percent to 13 percent over Sanders. Not remotely close. And that’s exactly right, Nate — it’ll be interesting to see if Sanders falls short of the 15 percent delegate mark in Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District, which is about two-thirds black. He didn’t reach it there in 2016.

Nate Silver

A question to watch in Mississippi is whether Sanders clears the 15 percent threshold to receive statewide delegates. Pre-election polls and the exit poll seem to suggest that he probably will, although it’s close enough to keep an eye on.


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