What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries
ABC News is projecting that Joe Biden has won the Mississippi primary.
As we await a night that we think will be fairly pro-Biden, two important things are also working in his favor. First, it feels like the media writ large is giving as much, if not more, coverage to coronavirus as compared to the primary. Granted, I haven’t done a comprehensive study of press coverage, but I don’t think this was the case before Super Tuesday. So any Biden gaffes that might help Sanders will get less coverage. And second, Biden is starting to hint that attacks from Sanders help Trump. This message will likely be echoed by anti-Sanders pundits and make it harder for Sanders to take on Biden.
What Previous Exit Polls Tell Us About Missouri Voters
As in Michigan and Mississippi, the share of college-educated Democratic primary voters in Missouri rose in 2016, crossing the 50 percent mark. The share of voters describing themselves as somewhat or very liberal also increased. But other characteristics, like age and party, haven’t seen large shifts in recent years.
We’ll see how this year’s numbers stack up once we get exit polls.
Who voted in past Missouri primaries?
Share of Missouri primary voters by demographic group and year in past presidential election cycles
| race | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| White | 82% | 76% | 72% |
| Black | 15 | 17 | 21 |
| Hispanic/Latino | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Asian | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| age | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| 17-29 | 9% | 14% | 16% |
| 30-44 | 22 | 27 | 25 |
| 45-64 | 45 | 40 | 37 |
| 65+ | 24 | 19 | 22 |
| education | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| College degree | 40% | 33% | 52% |
| No college degree | 60 | 67 | 48 |
| ideology | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| Very liberal | 12% | 14% | 28% |
| Somewhat liberal | 28 | 28 | 39 |
| Moderate | 44 | 49 | 29 |
| Conservative | 16 | 9 | 4 |
| party | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| Democrat | 71% | 73% | 74% |
| Independent/Other | 23 | 22 | 24 |
| Republican | 6 | 6 | 2 |