What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries
What Previous Exit Polls Tell Us About Missouri Voters
As in Michigan and Mississippi, the share of college-educated Democratic primary voters in Missouri rose in 2016, crossing the 50 percent mark. The share of voters describing themselves as somewhat or very liberal also increased. But other characteristics, like age and party, haven’t seen large shifts in recent years.
We’ll see how this year’s numbers stack up once we get exit polls.
Who voted in past Missouri primaries?
Share of Missouri primary voters by demographic group and year in past presidential election cycles
| race | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| White | 82% | 76% | 72% |
| Black | 15 | 17 | 21 |
| Hispanic/Latino | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Asian | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| age | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| 17-29 | 9% | 14% | 16% |
| 30-44 | 22 | 27 | 25 |
| 45-64 | 45 | 40 | 37 |
| 65+ | 24 | 19 | 22 |
| education | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| College degree | 40% | 33% | 52% |
| No college degree | 60 | 67 | 48 |
| ideology | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| Very liberal | 12% | 14% | 28% |
| Somewhat liberal | 28 | 28 | 39 |
| Moderate | 44 | 49 | 29 |
| Conservative | 16 | 9 | 4 |
| party | 2004 | 2008 | 2016 |
| Democrat | 71% | 73% | 74% |
| Independent/Other | 23 | 22 | 24 |
| Republican | 6 | 6 | 2 |
From the preliminary exit polls, it looks like the electorate in Mississippi has gotten a little whiter this year — 31 percent, compared to 24 percent in 2016. That might reflect the fact that it’s an open primary and some GOP voters might be crossing over. But it will be interesting to see how the working-class white voters break this time. They were a big part of Sanders’s success in 2016.
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Missouri
Biden looks set to win statewide in Missouri. Our forecast gives him a 99 in 100 chance of winning the most votes, and he leads handily across all eight of the state’s congressional districts. Here is our model’s average forecasted vote share for Biden and Sanders in each district:
Biden is favored across Missouri
Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Missouri congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9 a.m. on March 10
| District | Biden | Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| MO-01 | 67% | 29% |
| MO-02 | 57 | 39 |
| MO-03 | 58 | 37 |
| MO-04 | 60 | 36 |
| MO-05 | 62 | 34 |
| MO-06 | 59 | 37 |
| MO-07 | 58 | 38 |
| MO-08 | 61 | 35 |
| State | 61 | 35 |