What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries
From the preliminary exit polls, it looks like the electorate in Mississippi has gotten a little whiter this year — 31 percent, compared to 24 percent in 2016. That might reflect the fact that it’s an open primary and some GOP voters might be crossing over. But it will be interesting to see how the working-class white voters break this time. They were a big part of Sanders’s success in 2016.
What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Missouri
Biden looks set to win statewide in Missouri. Our forecast gives him a 99 in 100 chance of winning the most votes, and he leads handily across all eight of the state’s congressional districts. Here is our model’s average forecasted vote share for Biden and Sanders in each district:
Biden is favored across Missouri
Average forecasted vote share for the top two Democratic presidential candidates in Missouri congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9 a.m. on March 10
| District | Biden | Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| MO-01 | 67% | 29% |
| MO-02 | 57 | 39 |
| MO-03 | 58 | 37 |
| MO-04 | 60 | 36 |
| MO-05 | 62 | 34 |
| MO-06 | 59 | 37 |
| MO-07 | 58 | 38 |
| MO-08 | 61 | 35 |
| State | 61 | 35 |
I wrote a story today about the racial dynamics of voting in the Democratic primary. Bottom line: Biden is doing really well among black voters and Sanders among Latinos, while white Democrats are more split. After it published, I saw some research from Data for Progress that I wish I had seen earlier and included in my piece. According to a survey conducted in January, 53 percent of black Democratic voters said that being a Democrat is “very important” to their “personal identity.” That’s compared to 46 percent of Latino Democrats and 42 percent of white Democrats. Those aren’t huge differences. But I do think a deep comprehensive study of Biden’s support with black Democrats would find the fact that he is kind of the party establishment candidate is a feature of his candidacy. “Establishment” has come to be a pejorative, but it’s probably not with all voters.