What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

I wrote a story today about the racial dynamics of voting in the Democratic primary. Bottom line: Biden is doing really well among black voters and Sanders among Latinos, while white Democrats are more split. After it published, I saw some research from Data for Progress that I wish I had seen earlier and included in my piece. According to a survey conducted in January, 53 percent of black Democratic voters said that being a Democrat is “very important” to their “personal identity.” That’s compared to 46 percent of Latino Democrats and 42 percent of white Democrats. Those aren’t huge differences. But I do think a deep comprehensive study of Biden’s support with black Democrats would find the fact that he is kind of the party establishment candidate is a feature of his candidacy. “Establishment” has come to be a pejorative, but it’s probably not with all voters.

Mississippi is one of six states in the U.S. where the Democratic electorate is either majority or plurality black. In 2016, black voters made up 71 percent of the state’s Democratic electorate, while the share of white voters fell from 48 percent in 2008 to 24 percent eight years later.

Between 2008 and 2016, there was also an increase in the share of college-educated voters (35 percent to 43 percent) and the share of voters identified as very liberal (15 percent to 27 percent). Whether these trends continue may affect Sanders’s performance at the margins, but Biden is an overwhelming favorite, according to our primary forecast.

Both FiveThirtyEight and The Bachelor franchise are housed under ABC, so this is what you call SYNERGY.