What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

Polls are closing soon in some states, including North Dakota and it’s tad unusual because it is hosting the first party-run primary of the year. Compared with a state-run primary, the voting hours will be shorter (running from just noon to 8 p.m. Eastern Time), and there are only 14 polling places statewide. No matter where they live in the state, people can vote at any polling place; they also had the option to vote by mail. Although North Dakota is calling its election the “firehouse caucuses,” they’re not really caucuses in that voters don’t need to stick around to realign after casting their ballots.

Our final forecast in North Dakota gives Biden a 14 in 15 (93 percent) chance of winning, while Sanders has just a 1 in 15 (7 percent) chance. We’re forecasting Biden to get 57 percent of the statewide vote, on average, and Sanders to get 33 percent. Because North Dakota has only one congressional district, the statewide results will decide the allocation of all 14 of the state’s pledged delegates.

For a quick overview of what’s at stake in today’s primaries, particularly for Sanders, Nathaniel Rakich recorded this earlier today:

You can’t project winners in elections based on crowd size at rallies, as we’ve discussed many times on this website. But having big, well-attended rallies is an opportunity to spur positive earned media coverage. So canceling rallies eliminates those opportunities. It also may create more of a sense among the electorate that what’s happening is not normal, and that sentiment can have other, cascading effects.