What Went Down In Michigan, Washington And Other Democratic Primaries

A lot of things affect turnout in primaries. Lower turnout later on in the process could also be true if the race stops looking competitive, for example. I think it’ll be hard to isolate the effect of coronavirus.

I’m also curious to see how Washington’s primary runs, since coronavirus has still been an issue for election administration — election officials were, for example, warning voters not to lick their envelopes. Of course, we have no idea how long the coronavirus outbreak will last, but it could be a good test case for how to handle an election during a public health crisis of this magnitude.

Hard to say for sure, but I think if a state has an active outbreak on a voting day, and then voter turnout is noticeably low, it could reasonably be inferred that it was a factor. Ohio is an interesting one to watch because the state only has three reported cases but the governor and public health officials moved quickly to try to limit the spread, which prompted Biden and Sanders to cancel their rallies.