What Went Down In The Arizona, Florida And Illinois Primaries

To put Nate’s answer a little differently: I think a contested convention was very likely at one point and a number of things just broke perfectly for Biden. The funny thing is: A lot of those things Biden had little to do with!

Oh not only do I think you’re wrong, Sarah, that a contested convention was never likely, but I think you’re neglecting the whole unpredictable and path-dependent nature of the primaries. Not hard to imagine that Sanders flatlines — the campaign has exposed his weaknesses in many ways — but that Biden doesn’t consolidate the non-Bernie vote quite as fast, that several candidates stay in, and then we’re headed toward a contested convention. That may have been the case if Bloomberg were a marginally better debater, for instance.

Sarah, I think that a contested convention was very possible, maybe even likely … in theory. But I think maybe what our forecast failed to take into account (in fairness, how could it?) human desires — i.e., the lengths the Democratic Party would go to in order to avoid a contested convention, which many Democrats believed would tear their party apart. I think that’s a big part of why Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg and Warren were forced from the race earlier than many thought.