What Went Down In The Arizona, Florida And Illinois Primaries

Oh not only do I think you’re wrong, Sarah, that a contested convention was never likely, but I think you’re neglecting the whole unpredictable and path-dependent nature of the primaries. Not hard to imagine that Sanders flatlines — the campaign has exposed his weaknesses in many ways — but that Biden doesn’t consolidate the non-Bernie vote quite as fast, that several candidates stay in, and then we’re headed toward a contested convention. That may have been the case if Bloomberg were a marginally better debater, for instance.

Sarah, I think that a contested convention was very possible, maybe even likely … in theory. But I think maybe what our forecast failed to take into account (in fairness, how could it?) human desires — i.e., the lengths the Democratic Party would go to in order to avoid a contested convention, which many Democrats believed would tear their party apart. I think that’s a big part of why Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg and Warren were forced from the race earlier than many thought.

Friend of the site, David Byler, raised an interesting question on Twitter that I’m curious for what others think:

I’m sure some of you are likely to disagree with me — and I want to hear why — but my answer is “no was never gonna happen.” But! — and this is a big but — I think it was really hard to see that earlier in the primary because of: a) the sheer number of candidates in the race who cleared the 15 percent threshold for delegates in the early states; and b) the linearity of the primary.

And what I mean by that second point is the fact that Biden came in 4th and 5th in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, to only then start to make a comeback in Nevada and finally South Carolina, really muddied the picture and meant there was a lot of uncertainty, which by turn meant a contested convention was more likely then.