What Went Down In The Arizona, Florida And Illinois Primaries

Sarah, I think that a contested convention was very possible, maybe even likely … in theory. But I think maybe what our forecast failed to take into account (in fairness, how could it?) human desires — i.e., the lengths the Democratic Party would go to in order to avoid a contested convention, which many Democrats believed would tear their party apart. I think that’s a big part of why Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg and Warren were forced from the race earlier than many thought.

Friend of the site, David Byler, raised an interesting question on Twitter that I’m curious for what others think:

I’m sure some of you are likely to disagree with me — and I want to hear why — but my answer is “no was never gonna happen.” But! — and this is a big but — I think it was really hard to see that earlier in the primary because of: a) the sheer number of candidates in the race who cleared the 15 percent threshold for delegates in the early states; and b) the linearity of the primary.

And what I mean by that second point is the fact that Biden came in 4th and 5th in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, to only then start to make a comeback in Nevada and finally South Carolina, really muddied the picture and meant there was a lot of uncertainty, which by turn meant a contested convention was more likely then.

Actually, it looks like all those Cook County votes are from Chicago proper, nothing in yet from the Cook Co. burbs.