What Went Down In The Arizona, Florida And Illinois Primaries

So, as Nate mentioned earlier, Illinois doesn’t have the same tradition of early and absentee voting like Florida or Arizona, so turnout could be an issue. What counties should we be paying special attention to as results trickle in? Sanders was pretty competitive in Illinois in 2016, right?

According to the not-an-exit phone poll in Florida, about a third of voters made up their minds this month. And Biden’s lead over Sanders is much larger among those later deciders (73-22) than among people who decided before March (54-34), reflecting the growing consolidation behind Biden.

With a touch over 1.6 million votes now in from Florida, that means that a little more than 10 percent of the voting-eligible population in the state has participated in the Democratic primary. In 2016, that figure was just shy of 12 percent. If the Democratic vote gets up to around 1.8 million, it’ll be roughly equal with the 2016 turnout level. Remember that Florida is a closed primary state, so you have to be a registered Democrat to vote in it. Though, an independent or Republican could have switched party registration to vote in it. Some voters might have done that given that the Republican contest is uncompetitive.