What Went Down In The Arizona, Florida And Illinois Primaries

Yeah, Sarah, in 2016, Clinton beat Sanders in Illinois just 51 percent to 49 percent. Appropriately, one county that seemed to mirror the statewide result was Peoria County, so we might want to see if Sanders plays in Peoria this year too. But you might be able to see the writing on the wall in other counties, if Sanders fails to win some of the big ones he narrowly carried in 2016: Sangamon and Will, for instance.

So, as Nate mentioned earlier, Illinois doesn’t have the same tradition of early and absentee voting like Florida or Arizona, so turnout could be an issue. What counties should we be paying special attention to as results trickle in? Sanders was pretty competitive in Illinois in 2016, right?

According to the not-an-exit phone poll in Florida, about a third of voters made up their minds this month. And Biden’s lead over Sanders is much larger among those later deciders (73-22) than among people who decided before March (54-34), reflecting the growing consolidation behind Biden.