What Went Down In The Arizona, Florida And Illinois Primaries

The question of “what’s next for Sanders” is an interesting one. He is obviously aware that he is not likely to win the nomination — or really a ton more states. I assume Sanders’s general view is that if he has 30-35 percent of the total delegates, he is in a strong position to command some concessions from Biden. If he quits now, Biden might get 80 percent or more of the vote in upcoming states, Sanders might dip to say 20 percent of the total delegates. He’s weaker then.

So the way to end this primary most quickly is for Biden to offer Sanders something. But it’s hard to imagine that Biden will promise to pick a lefty (so Warren, for example) as his running mate this early or move to the left much on policy, because Biden’s whole point is to run as a more centrist campaign.

The situation gets to this broader question of whether the Democratic Party is more like a European-style coalition — with a very liberal bloc and less liberal bloc (and the losing wing should get some cabinet posts or other promises) — or if the Democratic Party is really led by whoever the nominee/president is. (Or some combination of those two things.)

We mentioned earlier that Sanders’s worst county in Florida is Sumter County (between Tampa Bay and Orlando in central Florida). With much of the vote in from there, he’s winning just 9 percent. Well, Sumter is home to The Villages, a massive retirement community, which helps make it the oldest county in the country by median age (about 68 years old). So yeah, not a shocker that Sanders does worse there than anywhere else.