ABC News is now projecting that Doug Mastriano will be the GOP nominee for Pennsylvania governor. He currently has a commanding lead in the primary. The general election, though, could be a different story, with Mastriano possessing some very extreme views and going up against a strong Democrat in Shapiro.
Latest count in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for governor
Results of Pennsylvania’s Republican primary for governor, as of 9:49 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Doug Mastriano | 186,600 | 42.8 |
| Lou Barletta | 98,890 | 22.7 |
| Bill McSwain | 64,648 | 14.8 |
| Dave White | 34,080 | 7.8 |
| Melissa Hart | 21,616 | 5.0 |
| Jake Corman | 11,151 | 2.6 |
| Joe Gale | 6,970 | 1.6 |
| Charlie Gerow | 6,156 | 1.4 |
| Nche Zama | 6,009 | 1.4 |
Things are definitely trending in the wrong direction for Cawthorn. There are only 10 precincts outstanding in the 11th District GOP primary, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, and Cawthorn trails by around 1,500 votes. But the remaining precincts are all in counties where Cawthorn leads, mostly by solid margins, so maybe he has an extremely narrow path to survival.
I admit, I’m fairly surprised it looks like Cawthorn is going to lose. I figured his scandals came too close to the election to really trickle down and influence voters’ opinions. Then again, maybe it has more to do with his abandoning of the district for a hot minute under North Carolina’s old congressional map? He decamped to the 13th District because it was redder, then after the courts struck down that map and imposed a new one, he had to return to the 11th District, hat in hand.
Right, Alex — it feels like if the GOP establishment was going to win anywhere, it would be over Cawthorn! He just became so laughably controversial.
In the GOP primary for North Carolina’s 1st District, we’ve got about 65 percent of the vote counted, and Smith is still holding on to a mid-single-digit lead over Roberson. Again, Smith is the candidate D.C. Republicans least want as their standard-bearer in the potentially competitive district.
Latest count in North Carolina’s 1st District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, as of 9:40 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Smith | 11,738 | 31.0 |
| Sandy Roberson | 9,977 | 26.4 |
| Brent Roberson | 5,971 | 15.8 |
| Billy Strickland | 5,056 | 13.4 |
| Brad Murphy | 3,472 | 9.2 |
| Will Aiken | 995 | 2.6 |
| Ernest Reeves | 432 | 1.1 |
| Henry Williams II | 173 | 0.5 |
That’s looking increasingly likely as the night progresses, Sarah. But should we be surprised by that? Part of the reason why Cawthorn’s reelection chances are even in limbo is because he’s been mired in scandal since he was first elected in 2020. The headlines haven’t slowed down recently, either: In April, he was briefly detained after he brought a loaded gun into an airport. That same month, Cawthorn was accused of participating in an alleged insider trading scheme and was also forced to respond publicly after photos emerged of him drinking while wearing women’s lingerie at a party.
Just a little update in the NC-13 Republican primary — with 44 percent of the vote in, Hines is still leading, but by a narrower margin. He has 31.7 percent of the vote, while Barbour has 26.6 percent of the vote.
Latest count in North Carolina’s 13th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District, as of 9:40 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Hines | 9,170 | 31.7 |
| DeVan Barbour | 7,706 | 26.6 |
| Kelly Daughtry | 5,023 | 17.4 |
| Kent Keirsey | 2,829 | 9.8 |
| Renee Ellmers | 2,515 | 8.7 |
| Chad Slotta | 1,219 | 4.2 |
| Jessica Morel | 327 | 1.1 |
| Kevin Alan Wolff | 160 | 0.6 |
I don’t think that was the case in the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 12th, Dan. Irwin’s big lead out of the gate was mail/early votes. That maybe doesn’t bode well for Lee’s ability to catch up, if most other progressive candidates in her state came out with a big chunk of the early vote and she didn’t.
It’s ironic: Cawthorn was one of only two Republican candidates for Congress to defeat a Trump-endorsed candidate in a Republican primary in 2020. Then Trump decides to endorse him this year, and he (probably) loses. Trump really doesn’t have a good track record in North Carolina’s 11th District, huh?
It seems as if Cawthorn might lose, Alex? You wrote earlier tonight how polls had shown a decline in his standing in North Carolina, but he’d still been significantly ahead of Edwards. If Edwards’s lead holds, this will be at least one win for the GOP establishment tonight.
Meanwhile, in North Carolina’s 11th District, Cawthorn still trails Edwards by roughly 1,500 votes. As Nathaniel mentioned earlier, though, there are still about two dozen precincts with no vote reported.
Shapiro has centered faith in his campaign to a degree that feels uncommon for Democrats these days, and in a way that doesn’t shy away from his Judaism, which I think is also notable. His introductory video for his campaign cited a book of Jewish ethics called Pirkei Avot, and his latest campaign ad begins with a Shabbat dinner.
And while I wait for more results to come in from Philadelphia, I’m struck that the same pattern Nathaniel mentioned earlier is evident, even in Democratic primaries — the more left-leaning candidates seem to have cleaned up in the mail/early vote.
One of Shapiro’s most high-profile accomplishments as attorney general was an investigation into the Catholic Church’s cover-up of clergy sexual abuse of children. The report found more than 1,000 victims and it was one of the biggest government inquiries into child sex abuse in the Catholic Church. The findings were made public in a shocking report released in 2018.
Well, Shapiro has been attorney general of Pennsylvania since being first elected in 2016 (the Keystone State elects some statewide offices in presidential years, others in midterm years). He was unopposed today in part because it’s been clear for a while that he was going to run for governor. He’s raised a lot more money than any of the GOP candidates and has even spent some money to boost Mastriano with an eye on him being the weakest potential Republican candidate in the general.
With Mastriano’s strength in the race for the GOP’s nomination for governor, it’s worth noting that both chambers of the Pennsylvania legislature are in GOP hands. A Mastriano win would give the GOP a trifecta here in Pennsylvania for the first time since 2014. But as the University of Pittsburgh’s Lara Putnam said, this is not the Pennsylvania GOP of 2014. Given Mastriano’s support of the Big Lie and participation in the rally leading up to Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, you can be sure that Pennsylvania’s Act 77 (which authorized mail voting without an excuse) will be targeted. Mastriano and other GOP gubernatorial hopefuls have promised significant limits on abortion, too.
Shapiro outperformed Clinton and Trump in his 2016 bid for Attorney General.
Notably, Shapiro was also the only Democrat other than Biden to win Pennsylvania in 2020. He won reelection by 5 points even as the Democratic incumbent treasurer and auditor were going down to defeat.
Well, Nathaniel, Democrats might like him… but does he have enough appeal in a statewide election?
In Pennsylvania’s 17th, on the Democratic side, 51 percent of the expected vote is in and Deluzio is pulling ahead with 65 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, only 28 percent of the vote is in, but Shaffer, the front-runner, remains ahead. It is probably unsurprising to see this partisan split in the early vote.
Latest count in Pennsylvania’s 17th District GOP primary
Results of the Republican primary for Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District, as of 9:34 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Shaffer | 13,921 | 59.0 |
| Jason Killmeyer | 5,478 | 23.2 |
| Kathy Coder | 4,189 | 17.8 |
How progressives are doing tonight
Senate, House and governor candidates endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Sen. Bernie Sanders or the Sunrise Movement in Democratic primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, as of 9:35 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Office | % Reporting | Vote Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Booker | KY Sen. | 99% | 73.9% | ✓ Won |
| Attica Scott | KY-03 | 55 | 33.5 | ✗ Lost |
| Erica Smith | NC-01 | 87 | 30.2 | ✗ Lost |
| Nida Allam | NC-04 | 59 | 33.6 | ✗ Lost |
| Doyle E. Canning | OR-04 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jamie McLeod-Skinner | OR-05 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Summer Lee | PA-12 | 61 | 36.1 | Trailing |
A lot have speculated that Mastriano will face significant challenges in a general election if he wins the nomination tonight, including members of his own party, but what do we know about Shapiro, the Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee?
We were already expecting a late night in Oregon, given the time difference and the state’s near-universal use of mail-in ballots. But a clerical error could delay results even further in one of the most interesting races: the Democratic primary in the 5th District, where Rep. Kurt Schrader is trying to fend off a challenge from progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner. About two-thirds of returned ballots in Clackamas County apparently have blurry barcodes and will need to be duplicated by hand. The issue could affect nearly 15,000 votes, which, in a tight race, could be dispositive.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, we have around one-third of the vote in, and McCormick leads with 31.9 percent, according to ABC News. But Oz is not far behind with 29.5 percent, while Barnette sits in third with at 22.9 percent. But so much of the vote is left that I could see things shifting enough for any of this trio to possibly lead.
Latest count in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for Senate
Results of Pennsylvania’s Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, as of 9:30 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| David McCormick | 99,247 | 31.9 |
| Mehmet Oz | 91,784 | 29.5 |
| Kathy Barnette | 71,418 | 22.9 |
| Carla Sands | 22,129 | 7.1 |
| Jeff Bartos | 18,750 | 6.0 |
| Sean Gale | 4,413 | 1.4 |
| George Bochetto | 3,804 | 1.2 |
At 61 percent of the vote now in, the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 12th is tightening somewhat. It’s now Irwin at 47 percent and Lee at 36.
Latest count in Pennsylvania’s 12th District Democratic primary
Results of the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District, as of 9:26 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Irwin | 28,554 | 46.6 |
| Summer Lee | 22,106 | 36.1 |
| Jerry Dickinson | 6,813 | 11.1 |
| Jeff Woodard | 2,880 | 4.7 |
| William Parker | 961 | 1.6 |
We’ve talked a fair bit about nationalization, and there’s plenty of evidence of it at work in the results so far. But it’s also worth noting that it does have limits. In 2014, when Republican candidates basically ran the table on competitive races, they still managed to lose the Pennsylvania governor’s seat. So while Mastriano is likely to have tailwinds from the national environment, he’ll face a well-funded Democratic opponent with a credible shot to buck national trends. And I don’t think there are spending caps for state candidates in Pennsylvania, so Democratic nominee Shapiro may well have a sizeable cash advantage. Plus, fun fact: In 2016, Shapiro (while running for attorney general) outperformed both Clinton and Trump in Pennsylvania.
According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, only 35 precincts are left to report in North Carolina’s 11th District. Edwards’s lead over Cawthorn still sits at 1,709 votes.
Speaking of carpetbaggers, Hines is currently leading the GOP race in North Carolina’s 13th district. Hines has 32.6 percent with DeVan Barbour at 23.3 percent, and 34 percent of votes reporting. Hines, who has been endorsed by Trump, also believes the Big Lie: He told the Washington Post in December that he believes the 2020 election was “stolen.”
Nathaniel, I’d be remiss not to note that at Inside Elections we’ve had the Pennsylvania governor’s race at “Tilt Democratic” from the beginning.
As rural counties continue to report, Mastriano’s lead in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race is growing ever wider: now 40 percent to 21 percent over Barletta.
Latest count in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for governor
Results of Pennsylvania’s Republican primary for governor, as of 9:26 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Doug Mastriano | 107,981 | 40.6 |
| Lou Barletta | 55,555 | 20.9 |
| Bill McSwain | 42,181 | 15.9 |
| Dave White | 22,790 | 8.6 |
| Melissa Hart | 15,988 | 6.0 |
| Jake Corman | 8,115 | 3.1 |
| Joe Gale | 4,998 | 1.9 |
| Nche Zama | 4,257 | 1.6 |
| Charlie Gerow | 3,887 | 1.5 |
I’m interested to see what your napkin math says about this, Nathaniel, but if Edwards continues to hold on to over 30 percent of the vote share in North Carolina’s 11th, that means he could win without a runoff. That would put Cawthorn in the interesting position of winning a greater share of the primary vote than he did two years ago (he placed second in the 2020 primary with 20 percent of the vote, before winning the runoff), but still losing.
As a Mastriano win begins to look more and more likely, some major forecasters are already moving the general election toward Democrats.
The AP has called the Democratic primary in North Carolina’s 1st District for state Sen. Don Davis (still no call from ABC though). He defeats former state Sen. Erica Smith and will face a competitive general election in the fall. The GOP primary is still unresolved.
And speaking about big money in politics … the Supreme Court weighed in on that issue earlier in the week. In a 6-3 ruling, with the Republican-appointed justices in the majority, the court sided with Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in a case about whether candidates can be reimbursed using donations they receive after an election. Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts said that a campaign finance regulation that capped reimbursements of personal loans from post-election donations at $250,000 “burdens core political speech without proper justification.” In an effort to test the law, Cruz had loaned $260,000 to his 2018 campaign. The court’s three liberals dissented. Justice Elena Kagan wrote that allowing repaying candidates’ loans using post-election donations creates the “heightened risk of corruption.”
There are lots of comparisons with the 2018 primaries, the last time Pennsylvania had Senate and gubernatorial primaries. But there’s a key difference: The landscape here in Pennsylvania is tilting toward the GOP. Back in 2018, GOP registrants were 38.0 percent of the state’s registered voters, while Democratic registrants were 47.8 percent. The Democratic figure is now 45.8, while the GOP is up to 39.5. Now to be sure, there have been plenty of ancestral Democrats in Pennsylvania who haven’t backed that party for several elections, but the Democratic registration advantage in Pennsylvania is eroding.
Some extremely back-of-the-napkin math in North Carolina’s 11th District: Cawthorn currently leads Edwards by about 2,200 votes among election day voters, with about two-thirds of the election day vote reporting. If you assume he continues to gain at that rate, he would pick up around 1,100 votes before the end of the night. Edwards’s overall lead right now is 1,742 votes.
Amelia, Foushee’s win is also notable because it will add to the diversity of the House. She’s a Black woman replacing a white man (retiring Rep. David Price).
ABC projects that Foushee will win the Democratic primary in North Carolina’s 4th. With just over half of the vote in, she’s leading by a considerable margin, with 50.2 percent of the vote. Allam trails in second, and Aiken is a distant third. A truly insane amount of money was spent in that race — at least $2.8 million — which is even more bananas considering that it’s an extremely safe Democratic seat.
Latest count in North Carolina’s 4th District Democratic primary
Results of the Democratic primary for North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District, as of 9:16 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Votes | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| Valerie P. Foushee | 28,434 | 50.1 |
| Nida Allam | 18,741 | 33.1 |
| Clay Aiken | 4,091 | 7.2 |
| Ashley Ward | 3,083 | 5.4 |
| Crystal Cavalier | 724 | 1.3 |
| Richard L. Watkins | 693 | 1.2 |
| Stephen J. Valentine | 669 | 1.2 |
| Matt Grooms | 266 | 0.5 |
With Mastriano taking the lead in the Pennsylvania governor’s race, and all the talk of candidates lacking local ties, it’s a good time for me to talk about a hobbyhorse — the nationalization of state politics. Mastriano was dubbed a “Christian nationalist” by the Philadelphia Inquirer, a designation you might expect to perform well in states with larger populations of white evangelical Christians (like, say, Texas or Arkansas). But as the GOP has nationalized, the candidate profiles that we are seeing may be starting to converge across the country. I’m struck that the GOP candidates in Pennsylvania tend to have views on abortion similar to candidates in states where abortion garners significantly less support.
It is a good moment for carpetbagging politicians. As Dan has written, the nationalization of American politics has brought national issues to the forefront at the expense of local (or district) issues. (Dan, I am sorry for poorly paraphrasing your very good and important book!) Carpetbaggers seem to have more room to appeal to partisanship instead. That said, Boise State political scientist Charles Hunt has written about the role of local roots, and it’s a positive one. He finds “that deeply rooted incumbents outperform their party’s presidential nominees in their districts by an average of about 5 additional points, even after controlling for partisanship and other crucial factors.”
I remember carpetbagging being a relatively big phenomenon in Texas in 2020. But I guess I’d be curious to know whether more Republicans or Democrats are guilty of doing so?
This race isn’t tonight, but when J.D. Vance won the Republican primary for Ohio’s Senate seat on May 3, the Democratic nominee, Tim Ryan, was ready with an ad calling Vance out for leaving Ohio and living in San Francisco, calling Vance a celebrity and a “big hit” at Washington, D.C., cocktail parties.
Sarah, I actually counted up the number of senators born in the state that they represented. It’s been declining for decades, and hit 50 percent a few years ago.
Jeff Bartos, another Pennsylvania Senate candidate, tried to make his opponents’ carpetbagging a major campaign issue. It clearly wasn’t successful. I think voters just don’t care all that much.
Don’t forget Carla Sands! She’s a trailing candidate in Pennsylvania’s GOP Senate primary. Carpetbagging is an interesting phenomenon because it’s an easy target for attack, but I wonder if voters really care all that much.
McCormick and Oz are the two candidates who immediately came to my mind, albeit for different reasons (and different coasts). McCormick’s been called a “Wall Street insider,” whereas Oz has been attacked as a “Hollywood liberal.”
Yeah, Nathaniel, I was thinking about the same thing — when a Trump endorsement is so meaningful, do local ties really matter?
Yeah, Sarah, Hines in North Carolina’s 13th and Oz and McCormick in Pennsylvania’s Senate race come to mind. It will be a really good test of whether voters care about local ties and a candidate’s personal profile or whether they are just following the cues of elites like Trump (or being persuaded by millions of dollars in TV ads). If the latter, it’s another piece of evidence that U.S. politics — even primaries! — has become increasingly nationalized. Sorry, Tip O’Neill.