FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

As I said earlier, Mastriano is probably the most ardent Big Lie supporter we’ll see win tonight. Remember that he attempted to launch a forensic “audit” of the state’s election results and paid for busloads of Pennsylvanians to join him at the Jan. 6 rally that devolved into the attack on the Capitol.

His win is important because it signals just how mainstream these ideas have become in the Republican Party.

That said, taking a look at other Big Lie candidates in races that have been called so far, there aren’t a lot of victories, though incumbents are the exceptions. Many of the Big Lie incumbents were among the group of Republicans who voted not to certify some of the 2020 election results.

A few newcomers have won their nominations as well, though, like Jim Bognet, who secured the GOP nomination for Pennsylvania’s 8th district and who said in December 2020 that he “stands with President Trump” for a “just result in the 2020 General Election in Pennsylvania!” There’s also Courtney Geels, who won the Republican primary in North Carolina’s 4th District. She hosted a dinner this year featuring Big Lie proponent Seth Keshel that promised to provide “an in-depth analysis of the 2020 election and how to prevent it [sic] fraud in 2022.” Then there’s Aaron Bashir, who won the GOP primary in North Carolina’s 2nd District. He called the 2020 election “one of the most rigged elections in our U.S. history.” But … he was also running unopposed, in a heavily Democratic district where he’s unlikely to go much further.

How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, as of 10:05 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
Brenda Bourn ID Sen. ❓Raised doubts 0% 0.0%
Edward R. Humphreys ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Brad Little* ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Lisa Marie ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Janice McGeachin ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Cody Usabel ID Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Russ Fulcher* ID-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Daniel Algiers Lucas Levy ID-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Bryan Smith ID-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Valerie “Dr Val” Fredrick KY Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 3.6 ✗ Lost
Tami L. Stainfield KY Sen. ❓Raised doubts 99 2.5 ✗ Lost
John Schiess KY Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 1.5 ✗ Lost
E. Lee Watts KY-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 83 17.5 ✗ Lost
Daniel Cobble KY-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 65 4.7 Trailing
Claire Wirth KY-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 15.7 ✗ Lost
Alyssa Dara McDowell KY-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 99 5.2 ✗ Lost
Harold “Hal” Rogers* KY-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 89 82.3 ✓ Won
Jeannette Andrews KY-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 89 4.5 ✗ Lost
Derek Petteys KY-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 50 11.7 ✗ Lost
David Flaherty NC Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 65 1.0 ✗ Lost
Kenneth Harper, Jr. NC Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 65 0.8 ✗ Lost
Benjamin E. Griffiths NC Sen. ❓Raised doubts 65 0.4 ✗ Lost
Leonard L. Bryant NC Sen. ❓Raised doubts 65 0.4 ✗ Lost
Drew Bulecza NC Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 65 0.3 ✗ Lost
Sandy Smith NC-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 72 30.6 Leading
Sandy Roberson NC-01 ❓Raised doubts 72 26.2 Trailing
Brent Roberson NC-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 72 15.7 Trailing
Billy Strickland NC-01 ❓Raised doubts 72 13.5 Trailing
Ernest Reeves NC-01 ❓Raised doubts 72 1.2 Trailing
Christine E. Villaverde NC-02 ❓Raised doubts 26 57.0 Leading
Mahesh “Max” Ganorkar NC-02 ❓Raised doubts 26 23.7 Trailing
Greg Murphy* NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 75.9 ✓ Won
Tony Cowden NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 14.0 ✗ Lost
Eric Earhart NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 5.0 ✗ Lost
Brian Michael Friend NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 60 2.6 ✗ Lost
Courtney Geels NC-04 ❓Raised doubts 69 64.6 ✓ Won
Robert Thomas NC-04 ❓Raised doubts 69 35.4 ✗ Lost
Virginia Foxx* NC-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 71 76.7 ✓ Won
Michael Ackerman NC-05 ❓Raised doubts 71 23.3 ✗ Lost
Christian Castelli NC-06 ❓Raised doubts 46 37.4 Leading
Gerry Austin NC-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 46 6.1 Trailing
Marvin Boguslawski NC-06 ❓Raised doubts 46 3.7 Trailing
David Rouzer* NC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 49 79.4 ✓ Won
Max Southworth-Beckwith NC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 49 20.6 ✗ Lost
Richard Hudson* NC-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 67 79.6 ✓ Won
Jen Bucardo NC-09 ❓Raised doubts 67 8.6 ✗ Lost
Michael Magnotta NC-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 70 6.4 ✗ Lost
Jeff Gregory NC-10 ❓Raised doubts 70 5.0 ✗ Lost
Chuck Edwards NC-11 ❓Raised doubts 94 33.5 Leading
Madison Cawthorn* NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 94 31.7 Trailing
Matthew Burril NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 94 9.5 Trailing
Michele V. Woodhouse NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 94 5.3 Trailing
Kristie Sluder NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 94 1.5 Trailing
Tyler Lee NC-12 ❓Raised doubts 49 42.2 Leading
Nalini Joseph NC-12 ❓Raised doubts 49 22.9 Trailing
Bo Hines NC-13 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 31.6 Leading
Renee Ellmers NC-13 ❓Raised doubts 52 8.2 Trailing
Chad Slotta NC-13 ❓Raised doubts 52 4.1 Trailing
Pat Harrigan NC-14 ❓Raised doubts 75 75.8 ✓ Won
Jason Beebe OR Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Jo Rae Perkins OR Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Ibra A. Taher OR Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Court Boice OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Reed Christensen OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Brandon C. Merritt OR Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Stan Pulliam OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Amber R. Richardson OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Bill Sizemore OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Marc Thielman OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Christopher A. Mann OR-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Armidia “Army” Murray OR-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Mark Cavener OR-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Katherine M. Gallant OR-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Lori Chavez-DeRemer OR-05 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
John Di Paola OR-05 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Laurel L. Roses OR-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
David Russ OR-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Amy L. Ryan Courser OR-06 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Mehmet Oz PA Sen. ❓Raised doubts 54 30.5 Trailing
Kathy Barnette PA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 54 23.3 Trailing
Carla Sands PA Sen. ❓Raised doubts 54 6.5 Trailing
Sean Gale PA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 54 1.3 Trailing
Douglas V. Mastriano PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 43.3 ✓ Won
Lou Barletta PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 22.4 ✗ Lost
Bill McSwain PA Gov. ❓Raised doubts 51 15.2 ✗ Lost
Dave White PA Gov. ❓Raised doubts 51 7.7 ✗ Lost
Charlie Gerow PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 1.5 ✗ Lost
Joe Gale PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 51 1.5 ✗ Lost
Alex Entin PA-01 ❓Raised doubts 13 16.8 Trailing
Aaron Bashir PA-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 21 100.0 ✓ Won
Guy Ciarrocchi PA-06 ❓Raised doubts 19 35.2 Leading
Regina Mauro PA-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 19 14.0 Trailing
Lisa Scheller PA-07 ❓Raised doubts 40 51.8 Leading
Kevin Dellicker PA-07 ❓Raised doubts 40 48.2 Trailing
Jim Bognet PA-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 63 69.1 ✓ Won
Mike Marsicano PA-08 ❓Raised doubts 63 30.9 ✗ Lost
Dan Meuser* PA-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 57 100.0 ✓ Won
Scott Perry* PA-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 27 100.0 ✓ Won
Lloyd K. Smucker* PA-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 21 100.0 ✓ Won
John Joyce* PA-13 🚫 Denied legitimacy 52 100.0 ✓ Won
Guy Reschenthaler* PA-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 41 100.0 ✓ Won
Glenn “GT” Thompson* PA-15 🚫 Denied legitimacy 50 100.0 ✓ Won
Mike Kelly* PA-16 🚫 Denied legitimacy 34 100.0 ✓ Won
Jeremy Shaffer PA-17 ❓Raised doubts 55 59.1 ✓ Won
Jason Killmeyer PA-17 ❓Raised doubts 55 24.7 ✗ Lost
Kathy Coder PA-17 ❓Raised doubts 55 16.2 ✗ Lost

*Incumbent.

Rep. Dan Bishop, who has denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election and is seeking reelection in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District, is running uncontested so his primary has been canceled.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try and overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News


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