FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

What To Watch In Pennsylvania Tonight

Pennsylvania is hosting today’s most closely watched primaries — but also several interesting races that have flown under the radar.

  • U.S. Senate: This open seat will help decide Senate control this fall and both parties will nominate a candidate. For Republicans, the big spenders have been celebrity physician Mehmet Oz (who has Trump’s endorsement) and former hedge fund manager David McCormick, but far-right author Kathy Barnette has made a late surge. For Democrats, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is the heavy favorite over centrist Rep. Conor Lamb and progressive state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta.
  • 7th District: Former Lehigh County Commissioner Lisa Scheller is back for her second shot at this Democratic-held swing seat, but she’ll need to beat business owner Kevin Dellicker in the Republican primary first.
  • 8th District: Despite having Trump’s endorsement, 2020 candidate Jim Bognet faces a potentially competitive Republican primary for the right to face Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in this light-red seat.
  • 12th District: This safely Democratic open seat might be progressives’ best chance to gain a member of Congress today: Progressive state Rep. Summer Lee had a healthy lead in an internal poll back in March. However, the pro-Israel group AIPAC has spent $2.7 million to help elect attorney Steve Irwin, who also has the support of outgoing Rep. Mike Doyle.
  • 17th District: Both parties have competitive primaries for this open swing seat. For Democrats, political operative Sean Meloy is more progressive, but professor Chris Deluzio has raised more money. For Republicans, former Ross Township Commissioner Jeremy Shaffer, a moderate, has raised the most money, but national security consultant Jason Killmeyer is running as a more conservative alternative.
  • Governor: The only Democrat running here is state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, so all the action is on the Republican side. The front-runner looks like state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who was leading in the polls even before he received Trump’s endorsement last weekend. Mastriano is a far-right extremist who led the charge to overturn the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania, which has Democrats worried that he would overturn the 2024 election as governor and has Republicans worried that he will tank their chances in the general election.

For more, check out my full Democratic and Republican primary previews.


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