FiveThirtyEight
Kaleigh Rogers

‘Big Lie’ Candidates In Big Races Tonight

Often when we’re checking for candidates who endorse Trump’s “Big Lie” — his baseless claim that the 2020 election was fraudulent — they wind up being fringe candidates or trailing in their races. But that’s less so the case tonight, where multiple candidates who support the Big Lie are competitive, or even the front-runners in some of tonight’s biggest races. Take Pennsylvania, where Mastriano is the front-runner in the Republican primary for governor. He’s been a Big Lie proponent from the start, claiming in December 2020 that “cheating and fraud happened in our state.” As a state senator, he also attempted to launch a forensic “audit” of the state’s election results, similar to the partisan inquisition that took place in Arizona. (It failed to find any evidence of widespread fraud.) He even chartered buses to transport supporters to the “Save America” rally, which he also attended, that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. With a recent endorsement from Trump in his pocket, Mastriano may be the most ardent Big Lie supporter to have a shot at such a large nomination thus far. The Big Lie has cast a shadow over another hot race: the GOP primary for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat. All three front-runners have offered mixed responses regarding whether they endorse the idea that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent. Oz most recently said that “we cannot move on” from the 2020 election, but he previously said that he would have voted to certify the election results — although he added that the election still needs to be investigated. McCormick has danced around the issue, refusing to say whether he believes the 2020 election was legitimate, even when Bloomberg’s Joshua Green asked him four separate times in an interview. And Barnette, who has had a surprise come-from-behind surge in recent polls, is an avid Big Lie proponent, even tweeting about a conspiracy theory “documentary” alleging voting fraud as recently as this week:
She also attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Needless to say, whoever comes out ahead in this tight race will not have had a sterling track record on upholding trust in elections. Meanwhile, in Oregon, the GOP race for governor has also attracted a number of Big Lie supporters — though they’re mostly polling in the middle of the pack or trailing. That includes Stan Pulliam, the mayor of Sandy, Oregon, who said in a recent debate that the election was “fraudulent, completely fraudulent.” Amber Richardson, a massage therapist, and Court Boice, a county commissioner, each told Oregon Public Broadcasting they do not believe Biden won in 2020. And Marc Thielman, a former school board superintendent, reportedly made comments in support of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, while Reed Christensen, a former Intel employee, actually participated in it. Finally in North Carolina, the picture is a bit more muddled in the marquee GOP Senate primary. Rep. Ted Budd is the current front-runner, but his stance on the Big Lie has waffled throughout the election cycle. Budd said in an interview last year that he accepts that Biden received more of the popular vote than Trump and is “the legitimate president,” but he was also among a group of Republicans in Congress who voted not to certify some of the election results. A senior adviser also recently told Newsweek that Budd “had grave concerns about the elections process in 2020 and that’s why he voted against certifying the 2020 election results.” So his stance is far from concrete. Tonight I’m tracking all of these races and others where Big Lie believers are on the ticket:
How Big Lie supporters are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates who have either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and their results in Republican primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, as of 7:32 p.m. Eastern

CANDIDATE OFFICE Big Lie Position % REPORTING VOTE SHARE STATUS
Brenda Bourn ID Sen. ❓Raised doubts 0% 0.0%
Edward R. Humphreys ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Brad Little* ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Lisa Marie ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Janice McGeachin ID Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Cody Usabel ID Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Russ Fulcher* ID-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Daniel Algiers Lucas Levy ID-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Bryan Smith ID-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Valerie “Dr Val” Fredrick KY Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 13 3.3 ✗ Lost
Tami L. Stainfield KY Sen. ❓Raised doubts 13 2.6 ✗ Lost
John Schiess KY Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 13 1.5 ✗ Lost
E. Lee Watts KY-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 19.1 Trailing
Daniel Cobble KY-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 4 3.7 Trailing
Claire Wirth KY-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 14 14.4 ✗ Lost
Alyssa Dara McDowell KY-04 🚫 Denied legitimacy 14 4.9 ✗ Lost
Harold “Hal” Rogers* KY-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 11 82.9 ✓ Won
Jeannette Andrews KY-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 11 4.3 ✗ Lost
Derek Petteys KY-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 9 11.5 Trailing
Benjamin E. Griffiths NC Sen. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Kenneth Harper, Jr. NC Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Leonard L. Bryant NC Sen. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Drew Bulecza NC Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
David Flaherty NC Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Ernest Reeves NC-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Brent Roberson NC-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Sandy Roberson NC-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Sandy Smith NC-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Billy Strickland NC-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Mahesh “Max” Ganorkar NC-02 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Christine E. Villaverde NC-02 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Tony Cowden NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Eric Earhart NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Brian Michael Friend NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Greg Murphy* NC-03 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Courtney Geels NC-04 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Robert Thomas NC-04 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Virginia Foxx* NC-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Michael Ackerman NC-05 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Christian Castelli NC-06 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Gerry Austin NC-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Marvin Boguslawski NC-06 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
David Rouzer* NC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Max Southworth-Beckwith NC-07 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Richard Hudson* NC-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Jen Bucardo NC-09 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Jeff Gregory NC-10 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Michael Magnotta NC-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Madison Cawthorn* NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Chuck Edwards NC-11 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Kristie Sluder NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Michele V. Woodhouse NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Matthew Burril NC-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Nalini Joseph NC-12 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Tyler Lee NC-12 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Renee Ellmers NC-13 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Bo Hines NC-13 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Chad Slotta NC-13 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Pat Harrigan NC-14 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Jason Beebe OR Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Jo Rae Perkins OR Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Ibra A. Taher OR Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Court Boice OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Reed Christensen OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Brandon C. Merritt OR Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Stan Pulliam OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Amber R. Richardson OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Bill Sizemore OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Marc Thielman OR Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Christopher A. Mann OR-01 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Armidia “Army” Murray OR-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Mark Cavener OR-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Katherine M. Gallant OR-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Lori Chavez-DeRemer OR-05 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
John Di Paola OR-05 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Laurel L. Roses OR-05 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
David Russ OR-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Amy L. Ryan Courser OR-06 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Kathy Barnette PA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Mehmet Oz PA Sen. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Sean Gale PA Sen. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Carla Sands PA Sen. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Lou Barletta PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Douglas V. Mastriano PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Dave White PA Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Bill McSwain PA Gov. ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Charlie Gerow PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Joe Gale PA Gov. 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Alex Entin PA-01 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Aaron Bashir PA-02 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Regina Mauro PA-06 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Guy Ciarrocchi PA-06 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Kevin Dellicker PA-07 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Lisa Scheller PA-07 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Jim Bognet PA-08 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Mike Marsicano PA-08 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Dan Meuser* PA-09 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Scott Perry* PA-10 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Lloyd K. Smucker* PA-11 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
John Joyce* PA-13 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Guy Reschenthaler* PA-14 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Glenn “GT” Thompson* PA-15 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Mike Kelly* PA-16 🚫 Denied legitimacy 0 0.0
Jeremy Shaffer PA-17 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Jason Killmeyer PA-17 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0
Kathy Coder PA-17 ❓Raised doubts 0 0.0

*Incumbent.

Rep. Dan Bishop, who has denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election and is seeking reelection in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District, is running uncontested so his primary has been canceled.

Candidates marked as having “denied legitimacy” of the 2020 election either explicitly said Donald Trump’s loss or the 2020 election itself was illegitimate or, if an elected official, took legal measures to try and overturn the election. Candidates marked as “raised doubts” have questioned the fairness of the 2020 election or made references to “election integrity” but have not explicitly said the election or Trump’s loss was illegitimate.

Sources: News reports, campaigns, ABC News


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