Trump’s Endorsements Have Finally Gotten Interesting
It’s the biggest day of the primaries thus far — and therefore the biggest test of the power of a Trump endorsement. By now, we know that Trump often pads his record, endorsing safe incumbent representatives who likely would win their primaries anyway. And that was the case for today’s primaries as well: Of his 26 endorsements for House, Senate and governor in today’s primaries, 20 went to incumbents.
There is one incumbent, though, who could be in trouble: North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn. As Nathaniel Rakich wrote this week, Cawthorn has been dogged by a myriad of personal, professional and legal scandals that have led his fellow Republicans to try and oust him from office. But while Trump has reportedly been “weirded out” by Cawthorn’s controversies, he’s still working to get Cawthorn elected. On Monday, he turned to his Twitter-esque platform Truth Social, encouraging his followers to look past Cawthorn’s “foolish mistakes” and give him “a second chance.” Trump’s endorsement — and the benefit of a crowded, eight-candidate field — may be enough for Cawthorn to hit the 30-percent threshold he needs to avoid a runoff.
As for the six candidates Trump endorsed who aren’t incumbents, Rep. Ted Budd looks like his safest bet in his bid for Senate in North Carolina. Recent polling shows him with a 27-point lead over former Gov. Pat McCrory. It’s probably not thanks to Trump’s endorsement, however: Trump endorsed Budd almost a year ago, but Budd didn’t start leading in the polls until early April. That’s in large part likely due to support from the Club for Growth Action, a super PAC associated with the anti-tax conservative organization Club for Growth. The outside group has dedicated over one-third of its spending on federal elections ($11 million of a total $31.5 million) on the North Carolina Republican Senate primary alone.
In one of Pennsylvania’s two major statewide races, for governor, state Sen. Doug Mastriano has a large lead and the benefit of Trump’s endorsement. But Mastriano’s rise has led to vocal opposition. His far-right leanings, including his belief in Christian nationalism, support for the QAnon conspiracy theory and efforts to overturn the 2020 election (including clashing with police while attending the rally in Washington, D.C., that preceded the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol) have terrified the Republican establishment, who fear there’s no way Mastriano can win against Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the presumptive Democratic nominee.
But in Pennsylvania’s Senate race, things are less certain for Trump’s pick, Mehmet Oz. The most recent polling from the Trafalgar Group and Fox News shows a three-way tie between Oz, far-right commentator Kathy Barnette and former hedge fund manager David McCormick. This race is complicated by the fact that the Club for Growth is actively challenging Trump’s endorsement by backing Barnette, who’s had an unexpected, last-minute rise in the polls. (Reportedly, the Club for Growth’s endorsement of Barnette is partly revenge for Trump endorsing J.D. Vance in the Ohio Senate primary, where the Club for Growth supported Josh Mandel.) It’s possible any one of these candidates wins tonight.
Trump also endorsed Jim Bognet, who served in the Trump administration, in Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, which is currently held by a Democrat. Bognet also ran for the seat in 2020, losing to incumbent Rep. Matt Cartwright by just 3 percentage points.
The non-incumbent candidate endorsed by Trump who’s most likely to lose, however, is Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, who’s running for governor against incumbent Gov. Brad Little. Little is one of two incumbent Republican governors Trump is opposing (the other being Gov. Brian Kemp in Georgia). But unlike Kemp, who broke with Trump in 2020 by refusing to overturn Biden’s win in Georgia, Little never wavered from his staunchly pro-Trump stance. That, combined with his low-key profile, seems to be a winning stance for Little. McGeachin has gained some ground in the polls since last December, but Little’s support still clocks around 60 percent.
Finally, in North Carolina, Trump has endorsed political novice Bo Hines, whose main opponent is attorney Kelly Daughtry. This is another race where Trump and the Club for Growth are aligned — the latter has spent over $1.6 million in the race. But Hines faces well-funded opposition from a different PAC, and Daughtry has loaned herself over $2.9 million for her campaign. Like Cawthorn’s district, this one also has eight candidates, and the top Republican will have to get 30 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.
Below is a table of all Trump’s endorsees on the ballot tonight. I’ll be once again tracking how how Trump’s preferred candidates perform tonight, and how their results impact his near-impeccable endorsement record:
How Trump’s endorsees are doing tonight
Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump and their results in Republican primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania, as of 7:22 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Office | % Reporting | Vote Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Crapo* | ID Sen. | 0% | 0.0% | — |
| Janice McGeachin | ID Gov. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Russ Fulcher* | ID-01 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Rand Paul* | KY Sen. | 7 | 87.0 | ✓ Won |
| James Comer* | KY-01 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| S. Brett Guthrie* | KY-02 | 0 | 76.5 | Leading |
| Thomas Massie* | KY-04 | 7 | 78.2 | Leading |
| Harold “Hal” Rogers* | KY-05 | 7 | 78.7 | Leading |
| Andy Barr* | KY-06 | 0 | 86.0 | Leading |
| Ted Budd | NC Sen. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Greg Murphy* | NC-03 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Virginia Foxx* | NC-05 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| David Rouzer* | NC-07 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Richard Hudson* | NC-09 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Patrick McHenry* | NC-10 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Madison Cawthorn* | NC-11 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Bo Hines | NC-13 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mehmet Oz | PA Sen. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Doug Mastriano | PA Gov. | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Jim Bognet | PA-08 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Scott Perry* | PA-10 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Lloyd K. Smucker* | PA-11 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| John Joyce* | PA-13 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Guy Reschenthaler* | PA-14 | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Mike Kelly* | PA-16 | 0 | 0.0 | — |